{"meta":{"title":"Tesla Assisted Driving — EU Progress Tracker","subtitle":"Country-by-country regulatory status for Tesla Assisted Driving (Europe product name; formerly Full Self-Driving Supervised), double-majority model, availability estimates, and source evidence","productNameEu":"Tesla Assisted Driving","productNameUs":"Full Self-Driving (Supervised)","productNameNote":"European Tesla sites renamed FSD Supervised → Tesla Assisted Driving around 6–9 Oct 2026 after BMV/Bilger talks. Capability and approval map unchanged by the rename alone. US sites still use FSD Supervised.","asOf":"2026-11-12","asOfLabel":"12 November 2026","updatedAt":"2026-11-12T14:30:00Z","timezone":"Europe/Lisbon","schemaVersion":2,"brand":"IntelligenceISIT","brandUrl":"https://www.intelligenceisit.com","sitePath":"/tesla-assisted-driving/","sitePathAliases":["/fsd-eu/"],"dataUrl":"/api/fsd-eu","blob":{"container":"isit-catalog","name":"fsd-eu.json","note":"Daily Grok durable task (ISITWeb/ops/fsd-eu) scrapes watch targets and overwrites this single blob. Primary page /tesla-assisted-driving/ and legacy /fsd-eu/ both fetch /api/fsd-eu on load/refresh. Not Codex."},"opsPath":"ops/fsd-eu/data/fsd-eu.json","owner":"grok-durable-schedule","disclaimer":"Analytical forecast from public sources and social posts. Not legal advice, not a leaked roll call, not affiliated with Tesla or any regulator. Social statements are recorded as primary-source claims, not independent verification. European product name is Tesla Assisted Driving; FSD Supervised remains the common legacy / US label."},"summary":{"headline":"Finland is the 11th live EU market. Map 11/27 ~ 15.5%.","blurb":"Traficom (10 Nov recognition; published 11 Nov) recognised the Dutch RDW provisional type approval for Tesla Assisted Driving — Tesla may offer it to Finnish customers immediately; @teslaeurope: rollout begins soon. @elonmusk amplified the same approval at 17:11Z on 11 Nov (“Tesla self-driving now approved in Finland”). Map stays 11/27 (~15.5%). National recognition does not bind Finland’s TCMV vote; Traficom expects EU-wide decision during the coming winter. December TCMV agenda still unpublished. Portugal still waiting.","approvedCount":11,"memberStates":27,"populationSharePct":15.5,"euWideStatus":"pending","euWideLabel":"Pending — Dec meeting exists; vote not yet decided","nextMilestone":{"id":"tcmv-2026-12","label":"Next TCMV — December meeting; a vote is not yet decided","date":"2026-12-01","confidence":"low"},"portugalStatus":"waiting","portugalOneLiner":"Portugal still not on Tesla's approved list. 4gnews (26 Oct): IMT Legal wrote 21 Oct that no technical assessment/parecer on RDW recognition exists — contradicting the 25 Sep government refusal rationale. Club still waiting to reschedule IMT; government prefers EU path."},"latestNews":[{"date":"2026-11-10","text":"Finland is the 11th live EU market — Traficom recognised RDW Art.39 for Tesla Assisted Driving (published 11 Nov); Tesla Europe: rollout begins soon. Map 11/27 · ~15.5%.","kind":"approval"},{"date":"2026-11-03","text":"RDW approved Tesla’s in-car rename to Tesla Assisted Driving and cut the speed margin from +50% to a max +10% (default 0% at start). Existing Art.39 approval stays valid; TCMV is still ongoing.","kind":"process"},{"date":"2026-10-29","text":"Italy’s transport minister Salvini, after a call with Musk, publicly backs swift EU approval of Tesla Assisted Driving — not a national recognition.","kind":"signal"}],"thresholds":{"memberStatesRequired":15,"populationPctRequired":65,"ruleNote":"Qualified majority: at least 15 of 27 member states representing at least 65% of the EU population. Abstentions do not count toward either threshold."},"estimates":{"euWide":{"label":"EU-wide customer availability","central":"2026-12 to 2027-Q1","earliest":"2026-12","latest":"2027-Q2","confidence":"medium","rationale":"Map now 11/27 (~15.5%) after Finland. On 3 Nov RDW formally assessed Tesla’s requested changes into the existing approval: in-car name Tesla Assisted Driving, speed margin max +10% (was +50%) and 0% at each start, HW4+. Traficom (10 Nov) recognised that file and said EU-wide approval is expected during the coming winter — still not a published December agenda or vote. Statens vegvesen (29 Oct) still says a December vote is not decided. Musk’s Q1-2027 hope remains a manufacturer ceiling."},"portugal":{"label":"Portugal customer availability","central":"After Dec EU window or later national recognition","earliest":"2026-12","latest":"2027-Q2","confidence":"low","path":"either","rationale":"No IMT recognition or Tesla Portugal activation. The 21 Oct IMT Legal letter (no technical parecer) is still not a recognition. Portugal rides the EU path. Finland’s recognition and RDW’s 3 Nov speed-cap/rename slightly improve that path’s optics, but they do not schedule a December vote and do not open a Portuguese shortcut."},"oddsNote":"Subjective probability buckets from: next realistic TCMV vote window (December meeting exists — Statens vegvesen 29 Oct: a vote is still not decided; Traficom 11 Nov: EU-wide expected during coming winter; EU does not move faster than published agendas), live market count/pop share, national recognition pace, Germany/France/Italy posture, Tesla market-list / rename changes, IMT/DRE silence. October 2026 TCMV window dropped: draft agenda was discussions-only and the meeting held with no vote (majority of MS authorities not ready). Not a market — analytical forecast only.","odds":{"euWide":{"asOf":"2026-11-12","question":"P(EU-wide Tesla Assisted Driving / FSD Supervised customer path clears — TCMV QMV pass or equivalent bloc recognition enabling Tesla activation beyond the eleven live markets)","buckets":[{"id":"by_dec_tcmv","label":"By Dec 2026 TCMV window","p":0.48,"note":"FI recognition + Traficom winter wording nudge Dec; agenda still unpublished — vote not decided"},{"id":"by_eoy_2026","label":"By end of 2026","p":0.54,"note":"Still needs a December vote that actually happens, plus a short activation lag"},{"id":"by_mid_2027","label":"By mid-2027","p":0.83,"note":"Musk Q1 ceiling plus one slip if December is discussion-only again; technical file cleaner than late Oct"},{"id":"by_eoy_2027","label":"By end of 2027","p":0.9,"note":"Still fails if Article 39 is reworked or a big-state block holds through 2027"}],"drivers":["@elonmusk (11 Nov 17:11Z) quoted @teslaeurope: “Tesla self-driving now approved in Finland.” Same approval already counted; not a new market and not a TCMV date","Traficom (10 Nov 2026; published 11 Nov): recognised Dutch RDW provisional type approval for Tesla Assisted Driving — 11th EU market (~15.5% pop). Tesla may offer immediately; national recognition does not bind Finland in the TCMV vote; Traficom expects EU-wide decision during the coming winter","@teslaeurope (11 Nov 06:18Z): Now approved in Finland — Rollout begins soon","RDW (3 Nov 2026): assessed Tesla's requested changes into the existing FSD Supervised approval - in-car name Tesla Assisted Driving (HW4+), speed margin max +10% (was +50%), default 0% at each start. No adverse effects. Approval remains valid","Statens vegvesen (29 Oct): no 6 Oct vote because a majority of MS approval authorities were not ready; December meeting exists but a vote is not decided. Soft CIRCABC Dec 1 folder claims (10 Nov) still empty — not a published agenda","BMV (6 Oct) asked for the rename and a <=10% offset and said it would push EU-wide approval. Germany has not recognised the file","Italy Salvini (29 Oct) still publicly backs swift EU approval - political lean, not a recognition","ETSC (30 Oct) still says a speed offset breaches UN R171. The cap is now official; the legal objection is not withdrawn","Map now 11/27 (~15.5%). fsd-eu-tracker.de / weneedfsd.eu as of 11 Nov show 11/27. Still needs 4 more states and ~49.5 pp population for QMV"],"updatedReason":"Quiet 12 Nov — odds held (Dec EU 0.48 / EOY 0.54). Musk amplified the Finland approval already priced on 11 Nov. December agenda still unpublished."},"portugal":{"asOf":"2026-11-12","question":"P(Portugal customer Tesla Assisted Driving / FSD Supervised available — Tesla PT activation for PT-registered vehicles)","buckets":[{"id":"by_dec_tcmv","label":"By Dec 2026 TCMV window","p":0.16,"note":"Tracks the slightly higher EU-wide December odds. Still needs a vote that is not scheduled, plus immediate PT activation"},{"id":"by_eoy_2026","label":"By end of 2026","p":0.34,"note":"Tracks the EU-wide end-2026 move. No Portuguese shortcut appeared"},{"id":"by_mid_2027","label":"By mid-2027","p":0.71,"note":"Most likely if EU-wide clears by Q1 2027 and PT follows"},{"id":"by_eoy_2027","label":"By end of 2027","p":0.87,"note":"Default if the EU path proceeds with one slip cycle"}],"drivers":["Portugal absent from Tesla PT approved-market footnotes","No IMT recognition / DRE instrument enabling customer use","Soft (4gnews 26 Oct): IMT Legal (21 Oct) says no technical parecer on RDW recognition exists — still not a recognition","EU-path PT tracks December TCMV. FI recognition and RDW’s 3 Nov changes help that path’s optics; they do not create a national PT route","Tesla Club Portugal (17 Oct): IMT meeting cancelled; club waiting to reschedule; government still prefers EU framework"],"updatedReason":"Quiet 12 Nov — no IMT/DRE/Tesla PT change. Odds held (PT Dec 0.16 / EOY 0.34)."},"coverage":{"asOf":"2026-11-12","question":"Expected count of EU member states with customer FSD Supervised live","now":11,"scenarios":[{"id":"at_dec_tcmv","label":"Around Dec 2026 TCMV","expectedLow":11,"expectedHigh":15,"note":"Vote still not decided. FI shows the post-RDW-change drip continues; a bloc unlock still needs a vote"},{"id":"eoy_2026","label":"End of 2026","expectedLow":11,"expectedHigh":22,"note":"If December is discussion-only again, the map stays a slow drip; a surprise vote could still unlock many markets"},{"id":"mid_2027","label":"Mid-2027","expectedLow":16,"expectedHigh":27,"note":"If EU-wide clears, most of the map can fill; if not, still limited club"}]}}},"watchTargets":{"description":"Sites and accounts the daily Grok task should prioritise. Official/regulatory first; social for primary-source claims and rollout signals.","tier1_official":[{"id":"tesla-pt-fsd","name":"Tesla Portugal FSD page","url":"https://www.tesla.com/pt_pt/fsd","why":"Approved-market footnotes; activation limited to registration market"},{"id":"tesla-pt-sub","name":"Tesla Portugal subscription / FSD purchase pages","url":"https://www.tesla.com/pt_pt/","why":"EU approved-country list often mirrored on subscription UI"},{"id":"tesla-eu-fsd","name":"Tesla Europe country FSD pages","url":"https://www.tesla.com/en_eu/fsd","why":"Cross-check market footnotes across EU locales"},{"id":"imt","name":"IMT (Portugal)","url":"https://www.imt-ip.pt/","why":"Portuguese recognition / test-licensing authority"},{"id":"dre","name":"Diário da República","url":"https://diariodarepublica.pt/","why":"Portuguese legal instruments affecting AV / FSD"},{"id":"rdw","name":"RDW news","url":"https://www.rdw.nl/en/news","why":"Originator of Article 39 provisional type approval"},{"id":"ec-tcmv","name":"European Commission / TCMV / comitology","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/transparency/comitology-register/","why":"EU-wide vote scheduling and outcomes"},{"id":"unece-r171","name":"UNECE / UN R171 (DCAS)","url":"https://unece.org/","why":"Underlying DCAS regulatory framework"}],"tier2_regulators_news":[{"id":"kba","name":"KBA / German transport ministry signals","url":"https://www.kba.de/","why":"Germany review"},{"id":"traficom","name":"Traficom (Finland)","url":"https://www.traficom.fi/","why":"Recognised RDW Art.39 on 10 Nov 2026 (11th EU market); watch for TCMV posture"},{"id":"electrek","name":"Electrek Tesla FSD Europe","url":"https://electrek.co/","why":"Rollout and minister statements"},{"id":"reuters","name":"Reuters autos / Tesla FSD Europe","url":"https://www.reuters.com/","why":"Regulator and safety reporting"},{"id":"nota","name":"Not a Tesla App","url":"https://www.notateslaapp.com/","why":"Country application status"},{"id":"etsc","name":"ETSC","url":"https://etsc.eu/","why":"Safety council letters to ministers"},{"id":"fsd-eu-tracker","name":"FSD-EU-Tracker","url":"https://fsd-eu-tracker.de/en/","why":"Aggregated timeline (cross-check only)"},{"id":"eleport","name":"Eleport FSD Europe explainer","url":"https://eleport.com/tesla-fsd-europe/","why":"Narrative timeline of first five approvals"}],"tier3_social_primary":[{"id":"x-elon","name":"Elon Musk on X","url":"https://x.com/elonmusk","handle":"@elonmusk","why":"Primary-source pressure on regulators (e.g. France delay 'will cost lives'); record as claim, not independent proof"},{"id":"x-teslaeurope","name":"Tesla Europe on X","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope","handle":"@teslaeurope","why":"Official rollout announcements, km stats, country approvals"},{"id":"x-tesla","name":"Tesla on X","url":"https://x.com/Tesla","handle":"@Tesla","why":"Global FSD announcements that affect Europe narrative"},{"id":"other-social","name":"Tesla / Elon elsewhere","url":null,"why":"LinkedIn Tesla Europe, Tesla IR, conference Q&A — only when corroborated or clearly primary-source"}],"tier4_youtube":{"description":"YouTube is not regulator-grade, but creators often beat official channels on EU FSD: ride-alongs, national approvals, TCMV chatter, and unofficial leaks from Tesla / people close to Tesla. Always scan channelHints (IntelligentTesla first, then the 10 highest-reach FSD/Tesla channels below), skim transcripts/captions, and extract EU-relevant claims. Label kind=youtube; never treat as regulator proof.","enabled":true,"maxNewPerRun":10,"recencyDays":14,"searchQueries":["Tesla FSD Europe","Tesla FSD Supervised Europe","Tesla FSD Netherlands OR Germany OR France OR Portugal OR Finland OR Slovenia","Tesla FSD TCMV OR UNECE OR RDW OR Article 39","Tesla Europe FSD approval OR rollout OR leak"],"channelHints":[{"id":"intelligent-tesla","name":"IntelligentTesla","url":"https://www.youtube.com/@IntelligentTesla","priority":true,"approxSubs":null,"why":"ISIT / our channel — always scan first for EU FSD claims, ride-alongs, and leaks"},{"id":"now-you-know","name":"Now You Know","url":"https://www.youtube.com/@NowYouKnow","approxSubs":"340K","why":"Highest-reach Tesla news show (Tesla Time News); often covers EU approvals and software leaks"},{"id":"numerama","name":"Numerama","url":"https://www.youtube.com/@Numerama","approxSubs":"263K","why":"Large FR tech outlet; deep EU FSD Supervised / homologation reporting"},{"id":"dirty-tesla","name":"Dirty Tesla","url":"https://www.youtube.com/@DirtyTesla","approxSubs":"143K","why":"Top FSD ride / software channel; watch for EU-relevant claims and early build chatter"},{"id":"ai-drivr","name":"AI DRIVR","url":"https://www.youtube.com/@AIDRIVR","approxSubs":"140K","why":"High-reach FSD deep dives; EU collabs and early software impressions"},{"id":"best-in-tesla","name":"BestInTESLA","url":"https://www.youtube.com/@bestintesla","approxSubs":"114K","why":"Frequent EU approval / TCMV / rollout news roundups; often surfaces unofficial chatter"},{"id":"tesla","name":"Tesla","url":"https://www.youtube.com/@Tesla","approxSubs":"official","why":"Official product / event footage — baseline, but creators often move first"},{"id":"tesla-jigsaw","name":"Tesla Jigsaw","url":"https://www.youtube.com/@TeslaJigsaw","approxSubs":"30K","why":"UK/EU approval and TCMV explainers; safety-data and vote analysis"},{"id":"sawyer-merritt","name":"Sawyer Merritt","url":"https://www.youtube.com/@realsawyermerritt","approxSubs":"23K","why":"High-signal Tesla/SpaceX news pipeline; often first with leaks that later hit EU narrative"},{"id":"robot-irl","name":"robot*irl","url":"https://www.youtube.com/@robotinreallife","approxSubs":"14K","why":"Best EU-street FSD field tests (NL/BE/DK/etc.); country + date often explicit"},{"id":"steven-peeters","name":"Steven Peeters","url":"https://www.youtube.com/@StevenPeeters","approxSubs":"10K","why":"Belgium / EU regs specialist; national approvals, GRVA/TCMV, early supervised rides"}],"extractRules":["Scan IntelligentTesla first, then every channelHints URL for uploads in recencyDays; also run searchQueries","Prefer videos with usable captions/transcripts; skip music-only or no-caption uploads","Creators often have more than official channels — capture unofficial leaks, Tesla-employee chatter, and early national-approval tips when EU-relevant; still claim-grade only","Glean EU / country / approval / TCMV / RDW / IMT / Article 39 / rollout claims — ignore pure US HW flex with no EU hook","Record speaker + approximate timestamp if useful; quote short; paraphrase the rest","news[] kind must be youtube; source = channel name; url = watch link","socialEvidence optional for high-signal clips (platform=youtube)","Do not email on YouTube-only speculation; email only if it clearly corroborates a Tier-1/2 significance event"]},"significance_for_email":["New national approval or recognition","Tesla official market added for Portugal or major EU state","TCMV vote scheduled, held, passed, or failed","IMT / Diário da República instrument enabling Portuguese customer use","Elon/Tesla primary post announcing EU country availability or material timeline change"],"ignore":["Repeated speculation without corroboration","Generic FSD US content with no EU impact","Uncorroborated social reposts of old news","YouTube speculation with no EU country / regulator / Tesla-official claim","Duplicate YouTube reuploads of an already-logged story"]},"socialEvidence":[{"id":"teslaeurope-fi-2026-11-11","date":"2026-11-11","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2120400770952745439","quote":"Now approved in Finland 🇫🇮\n\nRollout begins soon","countries":["FI"],"topics":["approval","rollout"],"kind":"announcement","featured":true,"interpretation":"Primary Tesla Europe confirmation of Finland as 11th EU market (06:18Z), matching Traficom’s 10 Nov recognition published the same morning. Rollout date not given. @elonmusk amplified it at 17:11Z the same day (after the 11 Nov scrape closed) — see musk-fi-2026-11-11."},{"id":"musk-fi-2026-11-11","date":"2026-11-11","platform":"x","author":"Elon Musk","handle":"@elonmusk","url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2120565179276832797","quote":"Tesla self-driving now approved in Finland","countries":["FI"],"topics":["approval"],"kind":"announcement","featured":true,"interpretation":"Primary amplify of @teslaeurope’s Finland post (17:11Z, after the 11 Nov scrape closed ~16:20Z). Confirms the already-recorded Traficom recognition. Not a new market, not a price, and not a TCMV date."},{"id":"teslaeurope-berlin-engineering-2026-11-04","date":"2026-11-04","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2118066010381308279","quote":"Berlin Tesla Engineering Center opens today. From permit to operational in under a year, it brings 4 engineering sites onto 1 campus w/ 30 different labs in Köpenick, 30 minutes from Giga Berlin.","countries":["DE"],"topics":["engineering"],"kind":"announcement","featured":false,"interpretation":"Primary @teslaeurope post (4 Nov 19:41Z). Third engineering hub after Fremont and Shanghai. Not a Tesla Assisted Driving approval, not a national recognition, and not a TCMV date. Missed by the 5 Nov scrape (X was rate-limited that day). Logged 6 Nov."},{"id":"teslaeurope-cybercab-tour-2026-11-02","date":"2026-11-02","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2117171084466257939","quote":"Cybercab is back. Starting November 5, experience how we are building the future of autonomy.","countries":["DE","BE","SK","CZ"],"topics":["marketing","robotaxi"],"kind":"announcement","featured":false,"interpretation":"Primary Tesla Europe post (08:24Z) linking tesla.com/events/cybercab-is-touring-europe. Static display tour from 5 Nov (Auto Zürich) through Central Europe into January (TeslaNorth / Tesla Mag same day: Zürich, DE, SK, CZ, PL, RO, HU, BE, AT). Not a Tesla Assisted Driving customer approval, not a national recognition, and not a TCMV date. No @elonmusk amplify located."},{"id":"musk-salvini-thanks-2026-10-29","date":"2026-10-29","platform":"x","author":"Elon Musk","handle":"@elonmusk","url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2115791448289525966","quote":"Much appreciated. Thank you!","countries":["IT"],"topics":["eu-wide","politics"],"kind":"claim","featured":false,"interpretation":"Reply to Salvini's 08:21Z EU-approval-backing post. Acknowledges the political support; does not announce an Italian recognition, rollout, or TCMV date."},{"id":"salvini-it-eu-2026-10-29","date":"2026-10-29","platform":"x","author":"Matteo Salvini","handle":"@matteosalvinimi","url":"https://x.com/matteosalvinimi/status/2115720560994836862","quote":"Very positive and constructive conversation with @elonmusk today. Italy is looking with great interest at the opportunities offered by assisted driving technologies, with a focus on innovation and road safety, and supports a swift EU approval of Tesla Assisted Driving.","countries":["IT"],"topics":["eu-wide","politics"],"kind":"claim","featured":true,"interpretation":"Primary post by Italy's transport minister after a call with Musk (08:21Z). Corriere, LaPresse, HuffPost and Numerama reported it the same morning. Political support for a swift EU decision, not MIT recognition of the RDW file and not a customer rollout. Musk replied 13:02Z: 'Much appreciated. Thank you!' (see musk-salvini-thanks-2026-10-29). No @teslaeurope post."},{"id":"musk-lv-2026-10-26","date":"2026-10-26","platform":"x","author":"Elon Musk","handle":"@elonmusk","url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2114772404463337693","quote":"Supervised FSD approved in Latvia! 🇱🇻","countries":["LV"],"topics":["approval"],"kind":"announcement","featured":true,"interpretation":"Primary amplify of @teslaeurope's same-day Latvia post (17:33Z, after the 26 Oct scrape closed ~13:10Z). Confirms the already-recorded CSDD recognition. Not a new market and not a rollout date."},{"id":"musk-lv-bravo-2026-10-26","date":"2026-10-26","platform":"x","author":"Elon Musk","handle":"@elonmusk","url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2114773746510946544","quote":"Bravo to the smaller countries in Europe for moving fastest!","countries":["LV"],"topics":["approval","pace"],"kind":"claim","featured":false,"interpretation":"Quote of Sawyer Merritt's 10-country list. Commentary on small-state pace, not a TCMV date or an 11th recognition."},{"id":"teslaeurope-lv-2026-10-26","date":"2026-10-26","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2114667445223149619","quote":"Now approved in Latvia 🇱🇻 Rollout begins soon","countries":["LV"],"topics":["approval","rollout"],"kind":"announcement","featured":true,"interpretation":"Primary Tesla Europe confirmation of Latvia as 10th EU market (CSDD recognition same day). Completes Baltics. Rollout date not given. Musk amplified later the same day (see musk-lv-2026-10-26)."},{"id":"tesla-q3-eu-2026-10-21","date":"2026-10-21","platform":"x","author":"Tesla","handle":"@Tesla","url":"https://x.com/Tesla/status/2112998455383847332","quote":"FSD Supervised — 4 new approvals since Q2 (Croatia, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia). FSD is now live in nine EU countries & used by over 100,000 customers logging more than 160 million kilometers since initial approval","countries":["SK","HR","SI","CZ"],"topics":["approval","rollout","eu-wide"],"kind":"announcement","featured":true,"interpretation":"Primary Tesla IR confirmation of nine live EU markets (already known from national recognitions). No new 10th market; no EU-wide date in the written update."},{"id":"musk-eu-q1-2026-10-21","date":"2026-10-21","platform":"earnings_call","author":"Elon Musk","handle":"@elonmusk","url":"https://assets-ir.tesla.com/tesla-contents/IR/TSLA-Q3-2026-Update.pdf","quote":"We're now approved in many countries in Europe and we're hoping for an EU-wide approval. It's hard to predict, but maybe within a few months, but I would be surprised if it takes longer than Q1 … that's not a timeframe we control.","countries":[],"topics":["eu-wide","forecast"],"kind":"forecast","featured":true,"interpretation":"Manufacturer expectation on Q3 earnings call (21 Oct), not a TCMV schedule. Aligns with Dec-earliest / Q1 2027 window already tracked; does not change 9/27 map."},{"id":"tesla-jigsaw-eu-2026-10-21","date":"2026-10-21","platform":"youtube","author":"Tesla Jigsaw","handle":"@TeslaJigsaw","url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2htL1ZygIg","quote":"Tesla FSD in Europe: What's REALLY Going On? — TAD rename, Slovakia approval, TCMV delay, UK demos (with Not an FSD Tracker)","countries":["SK","GB"],"topics":["process","rollout"],"kind":"claim","featured":false,"interpretation":"Claim-grade EU roundup (21 Oct). Rehashes known SK/TCMV items; not a new regulator source."},{"id":"elon-q3-call-eu-2026-10-21","date":"2026-10-21","platform":"earnings-call","author":"Elon Musk","handle":"@elonmusk","url":"https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/10/22/tesla-tsla-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript/","quote":"We're now approved in many countries in Europe, and we're hoping for an EU-wide approval. It's hard to predict, but maybe within a few months, but I would be surprised if it takes longer than Q1. But obviously, that's not a time frame we control.","countries":[],"topics":["eu-wide","timeline"],"kind":"forecast","featured":true,"interpretation":"Primary Q3 2026 earnings-call expectation, not a regulatory date. Shareholder letter the same day confirms nine EU countries (HR/SI/CZ/SK since Q2), 100k+ customers and 160M km. No 10th market and no TCMV agenda. @elonmusk X the same evening was US attach-rate commentary, not this EU line."},{"id":"robotirl-sk-day1-2026-10-17","date":"2026-10-17","platform":"youtube","author":"robot*irl","handle":"@robotinreallife","url":"https://x.com/robotinreallife/status/2111421733311819828","quote":"Drove it into Slovakia today. Day one footage","countries":["SK"],"topics":["rollout","testing"],"kind":"claim","featured":false,"interpretation":"Claim-grade early SK roads use after 16 Oct recognition. Not Tesla official customer rollout; soft corroboration of 'rollout begins soon'."},{"id":"elon-sk-2026-10-16","date":"2026-10-16","platform":"x","author":"Elon Musk","handle":"@elonmusk","url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2111131436191199660","quote":"Tesla supervised self-driving approved in Slovakia 🇸🇰","countries":["SK"],"topics":["approval","rollout"],"kind":"announcement","featured":true,"interpretation":"Primary amplify of @teslaeurope Slovakia approval post. Confirms ninth EU market; not a new country beyond SK. Quote of Tesla Europe 'Rollout begins soon'."},{"id":"teslaeurope-sk-2026-10-16","date":"2026-10-16","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2111095942015566145","quote":"Now approved in Slovakia 🇸🇰 Rollout begins soon","countries":["SK"],"topics":["approval","rollout"],"kind":"announcement","featured":true,"interpretation":"Official ninth EU national approval amplify (Art.39 recognition of Dutch RDW). Matches Ministry of Transport SR press same day; customer rollout date still TBD ('soon')."},{"id":"elon-danke-bilger-2026-10-07","date":"2026-10-07","platform":"x","author":"Elon Musk","handle":"@elonmusk","url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2107714870313676807","quote":"🇩🇪 Danke Schön! 🇩🇪","countries":["DE"],"topics":["approval","eu-wide","germany"],"kind":"reaction","featured":true,"interpretation":"Primary reaction to German transport minister Steffen Bilger pushing for prompt EU-wide FSD/Assisted Driving approval after BMV–Tesla Sept talks (≤10% speed, rename). Political backing signal — not a national DE customer unlock."},{"id":"teslaeurope-winter-ready-2026-10-07","date":"2026-10-07","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2107792835126919431","quote":"Winter is coming — FSD Supervised is ready","countries":[],"topics":["testing","rollout"],"kind":"marketing","featured":false,"interpretation":"EU winter-readiness marketing video (+ separate CH testing post). Not a new national approval or TCMV outcome."},{"id":"tesla-hq-8eu-2026-09-29","date":"2026-09-29","platform":"x","author":"Tesla","handle":"@Tesla","url":"https://x.com/Tesla/status/2105019768722043362","quote":"FSD Supervised has now been approved by 8 EU countries","countries":["HR"],"topics":["approval","eu-wide"],"kind":"announcement","featured":true,"interpretation":"Corporate amplify of Tesla Europe Croatia announcement — confirms eight-market EU tally; not a new country beyond HR."},{"id":"teslaeurope-hr-2026-09-29","date":"2026-09-29","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2104844301461262602","quote":"FSD Supervised now approved in Croatia 🇭🇷 Rollout will begin soon","countries":["HR"],"topics":["approval"],"kind":"announcement","featured":true,"interpretation":"Official eighth EU national approval (mutual recognition of Dutch RDW Art.39). Reuters corroborates same day."},{"id":"elon-tcmv-delay-sigh-2026-09-25","date":"2026-09-25","platform":"x","author":"Elon Musk","handle":"@elonmusk","url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2103506666738131032","quote":"Sigh","countries":[],"topics":["eu-wide","timeline"],"interpretation":"Primary reply to Sawyer Merritt's report that TCMV 6 Oct agenda has no FSD vote (Dec earliest). Material timeline disappointment signal; not a regulatory fact by itself.","kind":"claim","featured":true},{"id":"teslaeurope-cz-2026-09-21","date":"2026-09-21","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2101947798933385410","quote":"FSD Supervised now approved in Czechia 🇨🇿 Rollout will begin soon","countries":["CZ"],"topics":["approval","rollout"],"interpretation":"Official seventh EU national approval (mutual recognition of Dutch RDW Art.39). Matches Czech Ministry of Transport press release same day.","kind":"announcement","featured":true},{"id":"teslaeurope-es-testing-2026-09-16","date":"2026-09-16","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2100188661794881815","quote":"2 years of testing FSD Supervised all over Spain — Across 460,000 km, we have seen it all","countries":["ES"],"topics":["testing","safety"],"interpretation":"Company testing / readiness narrative under DGT ES-AV — not Spanish customer approval. Spain’s July ministerial line still prefers coordinated EU path over unilateral Art.39 recognition.","kind":"claim","featured":true},{"id":"teslaeurope-si-minister-2026-09-14","date":"2026-09-14","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2099637379829285158","quote":"[FSD Supervised] is safe, efficient, and above all, an exciting glimpse into the future of mobility… Slovenia is among the first 6 countries in Europe that opened the door to this technology.","countries":["SI"],"topics":["rollout","approval"],"interpretation":"Amplifies Slovenian Deputy PM / Infrastructure Minister Jernej Vrtovec’s positive ride impression after SI national approval — supports live/rollout narrative; not a new market.","kind":"announcement","featured":true},{"id":"teslaeurope-se-testing-2026-09-11","date":"2026-09-11","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2098366703285506550","quote":"Nearly a year of FSD Supervised testing in Sweden: complex scenarios on city streets & rural roads, at the appropriate speed, across the full range of Nordic weather","countries":["SE"],"topics":["testing","safety"],"interpretation":"Company readiness / testing narrative aimed at Sweden and Nordic conditions. Not a national approval and does not cancel Sweden’s speed-offset objection at EU level.","kind":"claim","featured":true},{"id":"teslaeurope-si-customer-2026-09-11","date":"2026-09-11","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2098293975727878455","quote":"FSD Supervised in Slovenia","countries":["SI"],"topics":["rollout","fleet"],"interpretation":"Amplifies owner footage days after 7 Sep approval — supports ‘rollout begun’ claim; still claim-grade social.","kind":"announcement","featured":false},{"id":"teslaeurope-si-2026-09-07","date":"2026-09-07","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2097007168939593780","quote":"FSD Supervised now approved in Slovenia 🇸🇮 Rollout will begin soon","countries":["SI"],"topics":["approval"],"interpretation":"Official sixth EU national approval (mutual recognition of Dutch RDW Art.39). Elon Musk reposted. Slovenian AVP confirmed recognition to Reuters.","kind":"announcement","featured":true},{"id":"elon-si-2026-09-07","date":"2026-09-07","platform":"x","author":"Elon Musk","handle":"@elonmusk","url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2097066172780831194","quote":"FSD Supervised approved in Slovenia 🇸🇮","countries":["SI"],"topics":["approval"],"interpretation":"Primary-source amplification of Tesla Europe Slovenia approval.","kind":"announcement","featured":true},{"id":"tabarot-fr-tests-2026-09-02","date":"2026-09-02","platform":"x","author":"Philippe Tabarot","handle":"@PhilippeTabarot","url":"https://x.com/PhilippeTabarot/status/2095225468035170725","quote":"Échange constructif ce soir avec @elonmusk autour du dispositif Full Self-Driving (FSD) de Tesla. … Avec la mise à disposition de deux véhicules équipés de FSD par Tesla, nous entrons désormais dans une nouvelle étape : celle des essais sur route.","countries":["FR"],"topics":["testing","approval-pressure"],"interpretation":"French Transport Minister: constructive call with Musk; months of technical work; Tesla supplies two FSD cars for French on-road tests ahead of EU decision. Material posture shift vs July ‘not safe enough’.","kind":"announcement","featured":true},{"id":"teslaeurope-art39-dashboard-2026-09-01","date":"2026-09-01","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2094661569582096779","quote":"An update on FSD Supervised in Europe — FSD is currently approved in five EU countries … 4.1x less likely to get into a crash … across 100 million km on public EU roads","countries":["NL","DK","BE","EE","LT"],"topics":["safety","eu-wide","evidence"],"interpretation":"Public Article 39 evidence dashboard ahead of Oct TCMV. Company-reported safety stats (4.1×, ~100M+ km, scenario pass rates). Claim-grade for Tesla position; not independent regulator verification. Note: posted before Slovenia joined.","kind":"claim","featured":true},{"id":"teslaeurope-ch-ridealong-2026-08-13","date":"2026-08-13","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2087779368290636287","quote":"FSD Supervised Ride Along experience now live in Switzerland 🇨🇭","countries":[],"topics":["demo","marketing"],"interpretation":"Passenger ride-along demo in non-EU Switzerland — not customer FSD Supervised activation and not an EU national approval. Does not change the five-market EU map or Portugal status.","kind":"announcement","featured":false},{"id":"elon-france-cost-lives-2026-07-22","date":"2026-07-22","platform":"x","author":"Elon Musk","handle":"@elonmusk","url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2079965837382037520","quote":"Delaying the approval of FSD in France will cost lives","countries":["FR"],"topics":["safety","approval-pressure"],"interpretation":"Primary-source claim linking delayed authorisation to preventable harm. Recorded as Tesla/Elon position; not an independent actuarial finding. Useful context when modelling France’s opposed stance vs safety narrative.","kind":"claim","featured":true},{"id":"elon-nl-first-europe-2026-04-10","date":"2026-04-10","platform":"x","author":"Elon Musk","handle":"@elonmusk","url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2042724887320760724","quote":"First (supervised) FSD approval in Europe! Congratulations to the Tesla team and thank you to the regulatory authorities in the Netherlands…","countries":["NL"],"topics":["approval"],"interpretation":"Confirms Netherlands as first EU supervised FSD market from Tesla leadership.","kind":"announcement","featured":true},{"id":"elon-nl-safety-stats-2026-06-09","date":"2026-06-09","platform":"x","author":"Elon Musk","handle":"@elonmusk","url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2064457520748339647","quote":"Major improvement in safety statistics with FSD turned on in the Netherlands!","countries":["NL"],"topics":["safety"],"interpretation":"Amplifies Tesla Europe Dutch safety stats; company-reported figures.","kind":"claim","featured":false},{"id":"teslaeurope-5-2x-2026-07-28","date":"2026-07-28","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2082175370569417066","quote":"In the last 4 months, FSD Supervised has been over 5.2x safer than manual driving – across 65 million kilometers in 5 EU countries","countries":["NL","LT","EE","DK","BE"],"topics":["safety","fleet"],"interpretation":"Official Tesla Europe fleet claim for the five live markets. Methodology is Tesla’s; regulators and journalists have disputed related US marketing figures.","kind":"claim","featured":true},{"id":"teslaeurope-50m-km-2026-07-14","date":"2026-07-14","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2076900387198742932","quote":"Over 50 million kilometers driven on FSD Supervised by our customers in the Netherlands, Estonia, Belgium, Lithuania & Denmark","countries":["NL","EE","BE","LT","DK"],"topics":["fleet"],"interpretation":"Scale signal in the five approved markets; does not change regulatory map.","kind":"announcement","featured":false},{"id":"teslaeurope-2-2m-train-2026-08-07","date":"2026-08-07","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2085633306922758464","quote":"FSD Supervised has been trained & tested on 2.2 million km across 19 EU countries, handling edge cases most people wouldn’t see in their lifetime","countries":[],"topics":["testing","eu-wide"],"interpretation":"Suggests data collection / testing footprint well beyond the five live markets — relevant to readiness narrative, not approval.","kind":"claim","featured":true},{"id":"teslaeurope-dk-2026-06-09","date":"2026-06-09","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2064350518907167166","quote":"FSD Supervised now approved in Denmark 🇩🇰 — Rollout will begin soon","countries":["DK"],"topics":["approval"],"interpretation":"Official approval announcement for Denmark.","kind":"announcement","featured":false},{"id":"teslaeurope-be-2026-06-11","date":"2026-06-11","platform":"x","author":"Tesla Europe","handle":"@teslaeurope","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2065093518276911603","quote":"FSD Supervised now approved in Belgium 🇧🇪 — Rollout will begin soon","countries":["BE"],"topics":["approval"],"interpretation":"Official approval announcement for Belgium.","kind":"announcement","featured":false},{"id":"sweden-safety-framing-note","date":"2026-06-18","platform":"editorial","author":"Tracker note","handle":null,"url":"https://electrek.co/2026/06/18/sweden-tesla-fsd-speeding-eu-vote/","quote":"Sweden’s authorities recommended EU-level rejection unless deliberate speed-offset behaviour is fixed — while Tesla’s broader public message is that withholding FSD costs lives / public welfare.","countries":["SE"],"topics":["safety","opposition"],"interpretation":"Sweden is the clearest formal ‘No unless fixed’ signal. Pair with Elon’s general safety framing (e.g. France ‘will cost lives’): the policy trade-off is safety-of-deployment vs safety-of-delay. Record both sides; do not treat either as settled science.","kind":"analysis","featured":true}],"milestones":[{"date":"2026-04-10","title":"Netherlands — first EU type approval","body":"RDW grants provisional European type approval under UN R171 / Article 39.","kind":"approval","countries":["NL"]},{"date":"2026-05-20","title":"Lithuania recognizes Dutch approval","body":"First mutual-recognition national go-ahead after the Netherlands.","kind":"approval","countries":["LT"]},{"date":"2026-05-29","title":"Estonia recognizes Dutch approval","body":"Transpordiamet accepts the RDW certificate; customer rollout follows.","kind":"approval","countries":["EE"]},{"date":"2026-06-09","title":"Denmark approves after technical review","body":"Færdselsstyrelsen signs off after reviewing the file.","kind":"approval","countries":["DK"]},{"date":"2026-06-10","title":"Belgium becomes the fifth live market","body":"Flemish mobility recognition extends nationwide.","kind":"approval","countries":["BE"]},{"date":"2026-06-18","title":"Sweden recommends EU rejection unless speed-offset fixed","body":"Formal opposition path tied to deliberate speeding behaviour.","kind":"opposition","countries":["SE"]},{"date":"2026-06-23","title":"Finland signals possible national approval after summer","body":"Traficom reviewing RDW file; may move before EU-wide vote.","kind":"review","countries":["FI"]},{"date":"2026-06-30","title":"TCMV discusses FSD — no vote","body":"Discussion only; EU-wide decision deferred.","kind":"eu","countries":[]},{"date":"2026-07-13","title":"Italy — homologation file under review","body":"Tesla files for recognition of RDW approval with MIT.","kind":"review","countries":["IT"]},{"date":"2026-07-17","title":"Germany — KBA evaluation ongoing","body":"BMV/KBA assessing RDW dossier.","kind":"review","countries":["DE"]},{"date":"2026-07-22","title":"France — not safe enough; Elon says delay costs lives","body":"Minister declines national adoption; Musk posts delay will cost lives.","kind":"opposition","countries":["FR"]},{"date":"2026-07-23","title":"Spain — no unilateral go-ahead","body":"Prefers coordinated EU path over national shortcut.","kind":"review","countries":["ES"]},{"date":"2026-07-28","title":"Tesla Europe: 5.2× safer claim over 65M km","body":"Company fleet stats for five live markets.","kind":"evidence","countries":["NL","LT","EE","DK","BE"]},{"date":"2026-08-06","title":"Reuters: regulators keep FSD safety data confidential","body":"RDW and others withhold evaluation detail; map unchanged.","kind":"evidence","countries":[]},{"date":"2026-08-10","title":"Daily watch: no Portuguese or EU material change","body":"Tesla PT still lists only NL, LT, EE, DK, BE.","kind":"watch","countries":["PT"]},{"date":"2026-08-16","title":"Daily watch: still five live markets; no new recognition","body":"Tracker/web/X cross-check: map unchanged (NL/LT/EE/DK/BE); TCMV still 6 Oct 2026; Portugal waiting.","kind":"watch","countries":["PT"]},{"date":"2026-09-01","title":"Tesla publishes Article 39 FSD safety dashboard","body":"Public evidence pack for EU vote: fleet safety claims (~4.1×), scenario tests, European km — ahead of 6 Oct TCMV.","kind":"evidence","countries":[]},{"date":"2026-09-02","title":"France begins FSD on-road tests with Tesla cars","body":"After Tabarot–Musk call, Tesla supplies two FSD-equipped vehicles for French authority road tests. Results targeted mid/late September ahead of TCMV.","kind":"review","countries":["FR"]},{"date":"2026-09-07","title":"Slovenia — sixth EU market","body":"AVP recognises Dutch RDW temporary type approval; Tesla Europe: rollout soon. First new national go-ahead since Belgium (June).","kind":"approval","countries":["SI"]},{"date":"2026-09-11","title":"Tesla Europe highlights Sweden Supervised testing","body":"Company post: nearly a year of FSD Supervised testing in Sweden across Nordic weather — readiness claim, not approval.","kind":"evidence","countries":["SE"]},{"date":"2026-09-21","title":"Czechia — seventh EU market","body":"Ministry of Transport recognises Dutch RDW provisional Art.39 type approval; Tesla Europe: rollout soon. First new national go-ahead since Slovenia (7 Sep).","kind":"approval","countries":["CZ"]},{"date":"2026-09-23","title":"Germany — Hirte: KBA clarifying speed exceedance","body":"State Secretary confirms KBA evaluating RDW file with RDW/Tesla on system exceeding posted speeds; Oct TCMV discussion expected — not a vote or national approval.","kind":"review","countries":["DE"]},{"date":"2026-09-24","title":"Belgium — Johanna.be FSD30 speeding study","body":"Independent ~400 km test: FSD exceeded limit in 55% of 30 km/h segments (avg 44 km/h). Report to RDW/Flanders; map unchanged.","kind":"evidence","countries":["BE"]},{"date":"2026-09-25","title":"TCMV 6 Oct — discussions only; Dec earliest vote","body":"Draft agenda for 119th TCMV: 25 min continuation of discussions on Dutch Art.39 request — no vote. Next meeting December. Elon: 'Sigh'.","kind":"eu","countries":[]},{"date":"2026-09-21","title":"Czechia — seventh EU market","body":"Ministry of Transport recognises Dutch RDW provisional Art.39 type approval; Tesla Europe: rollout soon. First new national go-ahead since Slovenia (7 Sep).","kind":"approval","countries":["CZ"]},{"date":"2026-09-23","title":"Germany — Hirte: KBA clarifying speed exceedance","body":"Parliamentary State Secretary Hirte (reply dated 14 Sep, published ~23 Sep): KBA evaluating RDW file and talking to RDW/Tesla about the system exceeding posted speeds; EU-wide recognition expected to be discussed in TCMV in October — not a national approval.","kind":"review","countries":["DE"]},{"date":"2026-09-24","title":"Belgium — Johanna.be FSD30 speeding study","body":"Independent Brussels NGO: FSD exceeded limit in 55% of tested 30 km/h segments (avg 44 km/h); often displayed 50 instead of 30. Report sent to RDW and Flemish ministry. Belgium remains approved.","kind":"evidence","countries":["BE"]},{"date":"2026-09-25","title":"TCMV Oct agenda: no vote — Dec earliest","body":"Reuters/Electrek: draft TCMV agenda confirms discussions-only on Dutch Art.39 request; Musk replies 'Sigh'. December is earliest apparent EU-wide vote opportunity.","kind":"eu","countries":[]},{"date":"2026-09-29","title":"Croatia — eighth EU market","body":"Tesla Europe: FSD Supervised approved in Croatia; rollout soon. Reuters corroborates national go-ahead. First new recognition since Czechia (21 Sep).","kind":"approval","countries":["HR"]},{"date":"2026-09-29","title":"ETSC urges reject of FSD speed-offset / contextual max speed","body":"Position paper ahead of Oct 6 TCMV discussions: claims speed-offset breaches UN R171 and was not in Art.39 exemptions; opposes traffic-matching contextual max speed. Soft EU-wide headwind — not a vote outcome.","kind":"opposition","countries":[]},{"date":"2026-10-06","title":"TCMV 6 Oct — discussions held (no FSD vote)","body":"119th TCMV met as scheduled: Dutch Art.39 request remained continuation of discussions only — no vote. December remains earliest apparent EU-wide vote window. Same day: BMV Bilger published Tesla deal (see DE milestone).","kind":"eu","countries":[]},{"date":"2026-10-06","title":"Germany — Bilger backs prompt EU-wide approval","body":"BMV statement: Sept talks with Tesla reached constructive agreement — system may exceed posted limit by max 10%; Tesla offered rename to Tesla Assisted Driving; driver remains 100% responsible. Bilger will push for timely EU-wide approval. Not a national DE customer unlock; KBA still reviewing.","kind":"review","countries":["DE"]},{"date":"2026-10-07","title":"Slovakia — minister: RDW recognition letter \"in coming days\"","body":"Transport Minister Jozef Ráž (video / Reuters 8 Oct): ministry negotiated with Tesla and will send Art.39(5) recognition letter to Dutch RDW; FSD then usable with driver responsible. Completed 16 Oct — see SK approval milestone.","kind":"review","countries":["SK"]},{"date":"2026-10-16","title":"Slovakia — ninth EU market","body":"Ministry of Transport SR (mindop.sk): officially recognised Dutch RDW provisional type approval of Tesla FSD (Supervised). @teslaeurope confirmed same day (\"Rollout begins soon\"); @elonmusk amplified. Driver remains fully responsible; exact customer enable TBD. Map 9/27 · ~13.9%.","kind":"approval","countries":["SK"]},{"date":"2026-10-07","title":"Reuters: Tesla pressed RDW to ease FSD review","body":"Investigation based on regulator emails: Tesla disputed RDW costs and sought to reduce review intensity; RDW says independence intact. Optics headwind ahead of Dec TCMV — approval map unchanged at 8/27.","kind":"evidence","countries":[]},{"date":"2026-10-09","title":"Tesla renames FSD to Tesla Assisted Driving in Europe","body":"European Tesla websites replace Full Self-Driving (Supervised) with Tesla Assisted Driving (FR: Tesla Conduite Assistée), matching the offer recorded in the 6 Oct BMV statement. Name change only — availability map unchanged.","kind":"evidence","countries":[]},{"date":"2026-10-21","title":"Tesla Q3 — nine EU countries; Musk hopes EU-wide by Q1 2027","body":"Shareholder letter: four approvals since end of Q2 (Croatia, Slovenia, Czechia, Slovakia); FSD Supervised used by 100k+ customers who logged 160M+ km in nine EU countries. Earnings call: Musk hopes for EU-wide approval within a few months and would be surprised if it takes longer than Q1 2027, but says that is not a timeframe Tesla controls. Not a new national approval and not a TCMV date.","kind":"forecast","countries":[]},{"date":"2026-10-26","title":"Latvia — 10th EU market; Baltics complete","body":"CSDD recognises Dutch RDW provisional Art.39 approval for Tesla Assisted Driving. @teslaeurope: rollout begins soon. Map 10/27 · ~14.3%.","kind":"approval","countries":["LV"]},{"date":"2026-10-29","title":"Italy — transport minister backs swift EU approval","body":"Matteo Salvini (deputy PM and transport minister) posted after a call with Elon Musk that Italy supports a swift EU approval of Tesla Assisted Driving. Corriere, LaPresse, HuffPost and Numerama reported it the same day. Not an MIT recognition of the Dutch file and not a TCMV vote. Map unchanged at 10/27.","kind":"review","countries":["IT"]},{"date":"2026-11-03","title":"RDW approves rename and +10% speed margin","body":"RDW (3 Nov 2026): assessed and approved Tesla’s requested changes to FSD Supervised. In-car name becomes Tesla Assisted Driving (TAD) on the display, manual and driver information (HW4+). Speed margin cut from +50% to a maximum of +10%; at each start the margin defaults to 0% and other speed-related functions are off. No adverse or unintended effects found. Existing type approval remains valid under the same conditions and does not need to be amended or extended. RDW informed the nine member states that have accepted it (BE, HR, CZ, DK, EE, LV, LT, SK, SI). EU-wide TCMV process is still ongoing; RDW does not comment on those discussions. Not a new market. Map still 10/27.","kind":"eu","countries":["NL","DE"]},{"date":"2026-11-10","title":"Finland — 11th EU market","body":"Traficom recognised Dutch RDW provisional Art.39 approval for Tesla Assisted Driving (dated 10 Nov; published 11 Nov). @teslaeurope: rollout begins soon. Map 11/27 · ~15.5%. National recognition does not bind Finland’s TCMV vote.","kind":"approval","countries":["FI"]},{"date":"2026-10-29","title":"Vegvesen: December TCMV vote not decided","body":"Norway’s Statens vegvesen updated its driver-assistance page: no vote on 6 Oct because a majority of member-state approval authorities were not ready; next meeting is December but a vote is not decided; decision wording unfinished. Tesla dropped the lateral-acceleration exemption, renamed the system, and moderated safety marketing. Norway (EEA, no vote) will not introduce it ahead of UN R171 and has not cleared customer demos. Not an EU market change.","kind":"eu","countries":[]},{"date":"2026-12-01","title":"Next TCMV window (expected)","body":"December TCMV meeting is the next window, but Statens vegvesen (29 Oct) says a vote is not decided and the decision text is unfinished. Exact date TBD.","kind":"eu","countries":[],"upcoming":true}],"countries":[{"code":"NL","name":"Netherlands","populationM":18,"status":"available","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"high","signal":"RDW originated the Article 39 provisional type approval (10 Apr 2026). On 3 Nov 2026 RDW approved the in-car TAD rename and a max +10% speed margin (default 0% at start) inside that same approval. TCMV still ongoing.","approvedOn":"2026-04-10","regulator":"RDW","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"available","confidence":"high","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-11-03","headline":"RDW approves TAD rename and +10% speed margin","snippet":"RDW assessed Tesla’s changes into the existing FSD Supervised approval: in-car name Tesla Assisted Driving (HW4+); speed margin max +10% (was +50%), default 0% at each start. No adverse effects. Approval stays valid and is not extended. Nine recognising states informed. TCMV still ongoing — not a new market.","url":"https://www.rdw.nl/en/news/2026/rdw-approves-changes-to-tesla-driver-assistance-system","source":"RDW","kind":"regulator"},{"date":"2026-10-07","headline":"Reuters: Tesla pressed RDW to ease FSD review","snippet":"Emails show Tesla disputed ~€365k costs and sought reduced review intensity; RDW says assessment remained independent (>3,000 test hours). Optics — NL approval map unchanged.","url":"https://www.reuters.com/investigations/tesla-is-browbeating-eu-approve-its-full-self-driving-tech-pressure-is-working-2026-10-07/","source":"Reuters","kind":"news"},{"date":"2026-08-06","headline":"Safety assessment detail kept confidential","snippet":"Reporting that RDW withholds parts of the FSD safety evaluation as manufacturer confidential — transparency debate, not a change in availability.","url":"https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/pressured-by-tesla-european-regulators-keep-full-self-driving-safety-data-secret-2026-08-06/","source":"Reuters","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"LT","name":"Lithuania","populationM":2.9,"status":"available","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"high","signal":"Recognized Dutch approval; customer rollout live.","approvedOn":"2026-05-20","regulator":"LTSA","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"available","confidence":"high","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-07-14","headline":"Among five live markets in 50M+ km tally","snippet":"Tesla Europe lists Lithuania among customer FSD markets exceeding 50 million km.","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2076900387198742932","source":"@teslaeurope","kind":"social"},{"date":"2026-06-11","headline":"Customer videos from Vilnius","snippet":"Tesla Europe amplifies Lithuania FSD clips (construction, tourists, unmarked roads).","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2065145770194653553","source":"@teslaeurope","kind":"social"},{"date":"2026-05-20","headline":"Second EU country to go live","snippet":"National recognition of Dutch RDW certificate; first mutual-recognition after NL.","url":"https://electrek.co/2026/05/20/tesla-fsd-lithuania-second-european-country/","source":"Electrek","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"EE","name":"Estonia","populationM":1.4,"status":"available","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"high","signal":"Transpordiamet accepted RDW certificate; customer rollout live.","approvedOn":"2026-05-29","regulator":"Transpordiamet","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"available","confidence":"high","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-07-14","headline":"Live market in Tesla Europe km tally","snippet":"Estonia included in official five-country customer driving statistics.","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2076900387198742932","source":"@teslaeurope","kind":"social"},{"date":"2026-05-29","headline":"Third EU approval","snippet":"Transpordiamet accepts Dutch type approval; rollout follows within weeks of Lithuania.","url":"https://estonianworld.com/technology/estonia-approves-teslas-self-driving-system-for-its-roads/","source":"Estonian World","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"DK","name":"Denmark","populationM":6,"status":"available","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"high","signal":"Færdselsstyrelsen approved after technical review; customer rollout live.","approvedOn":"2026-06-09","regulator":"Færdselsstyrelsen","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"available","confidence":"high","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-09-07","headline":"robot*irl: FSD vs Denmark’s worst street (Aarhus)","snippet":"Long-form supervised ride on Graven / dense Aarhus streets — claim-grade EU field evidence, not a regulatory change.","url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7qXFsA_Jxs","source":"robot*irl","kind":"youtube"},{"date":"2026-07-27","headline":"FSD Supervised clips from Denmark","snippet":"Tesla Europe highlights urban/beach intersections with pedestrians and bikes.","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2081843414497464646","source":"@teslaeurope","kind":"social"},{"date":"2026-06-11","headline":"Customer rollout starts","snippet":"FSD Supervised begins reaching Danish owners after approval.","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2064877461343740353","source":"@teslaeurope","kind":"social"}]},{"code":"BE","name":"Belgium","populationM":11.9,"status":"available","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"high","signal":"National recognition of Dutch approval; customer rollout live.","approvedOn":"2026-06-10","regulator":"Regional mobility (Flanders signature)","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"available","confidence":"high","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-10-15","headline":"De Ridder: no suspension; speed-offset dossier work with Tesla/RDW","snippet":"Flemish Parliament (15 Oct): Mobility Minister Annick De Ridder will not suspend/adjust Belgian recognition. After TCMV 6 Oct, Tesla+RDW improving EU file; adjust/remove speed-offset under discussion; raised again with Tesla 8 Oct. Two full-time Tesla test drivers still on Belgian roads. Map unchanged.","url":"https://www.vlaamsparlement.be/nl/parlementair-werk/commissies/commissievergaderingen/2075354/verslag/2079815","source":"Flemish Parliament / De Ridder","kind":"regulator"},{"date":"2026-09-24","headline":"Johanna.be: FSD sped in 55% of Brussels 30 km/h zones","snippet":"Independent FSD30 study (~400 km, July): exceeded limit in majority of 30 km/h segments (avg 44 km/h); often showed 50 on display. Sent to RDW + Flemish ministry. Approval map unchanged.","url":"https://electrek.co/2026/09/24/tesla-fsd-belgium-test-speeding-30-kmh-eu-vote/","source":"Electrek / Johanna.be","kind":"news"},{"date":"2026-06-11","headline":"Tesla Europe: approved in Belgium","snippet":"Official announcement; rollout to begin soon after Flemish recognition.","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2065093518276911603","source":"@teslaeurope","kind":"social"}]},{"code":"DE","name":"Germany","populationM":83.6,"status":"reviewing","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"medium","signal":"BMV/Bilger (6 Oct): constructive agreement — ≤10% speed tolerance, rename, driver 100% responsible; push for EU-wide approval. RDW (3 Nov) has now put that rename and +10% cap into the existing Dutch approval, but Germany is not on the list of states RDW said it informed, and KBA has not recognised the file.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":"KBA","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"EU-wide Dec window preferred; national Art.39(5) if EU fails","confidence":"medium","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-11-03","headline":"RDW files the +10% cap Germany asked for — DE still not recognising","snippet":"RDW approved the in-car TAD name and a max +10% speed margin (default 0% at start) inside the existing approval, matching the 6 Oct BMV conditions. RDW’s informed-states list is the nine that already accepted the file — Germany is not on it. Not a KBA recognition.","url":"https://www.rdw.nl/en/news/2026/rdw-approves-changes-to-tesla-driver-assistance-system","source":"RDW","kind":"regulator"},{"date":"2026-10-06","headline":"BMV/Bilger: deal with Tesla — ≤10% speed, rename, backs EU approval","snippet":"Official BMV article: Sept talks reached constructive agreement; system may exceed limit by max 10%; Tesla offered \"Tesla Assisted Driving\"; Bilger will work for timely EU-wide approval. Driver remains 100% responsible. Not a DE customer unlock.","url":"https://www.bmv.de/SharedDocs/DE/Artikel/StV/Digitalisierung-der-Mobilitaet/aktueller-stand-tesla-assistenzsysteme.html","source":"BMV","kind":"regulator"},{"date":"2026-10-07","headline":"Elon: \"Danke Schön!\" to German backing","snippet":"Musk replies to Bilger push for EU-wide FSD/Assisted Driving approval. Primary political signal — not DE national activation.","url":"https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2107714870313676807","source":"@elonmusk","kind":"social"}]},{"code":"FR","name":"France","populationM":68.6,"status":"reviewing","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"medium","signal":"UTAC/ministry formal results still unpublished past mid/late-Sep target (as of 18 Oct). Tesla FR site renamed to Tesla Conduite Assistée (~8–9 Oct); availability still pending regulatory approval. Paris Motor Show demos were not customer approval. Soft EU: BE De Ridder notes Tesla+RDW working speed-offset dossier. TCMV Oct discussions held; Dec earliest EU vote.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":"Ministère des Transports","highlight":true,"estimate":{"central":"EU-wide after TCMV if FR satisfied; national customer later","confidence":"medium","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-10-09","headline":"Tesla Conduite Assistée rename on FR site; still not approved","snippet":"European Tesla pages rename FSD Supervised → Tesla Assisted Driving / FR Tesla Conduite Assistée after BMV talks. Features still \"pending regulatory approval\" in France. UTAC formal results unpublished.","url":"https://www.tesla-mag.com/fsd-renomme-tesla-assisted-driving-conduite-assistee-europe/","source":"Tesla Mag / Tesla FR site","kind":"news"},{"date":"2026-10-07","headline":"Paris Motor Show: FSD Supervised demo drives (not approval)","snippet":"Mondial de l'Auto Autonomous Lab: six Model 3s offering ~25 min FSD Supervised sessions. France has not nationally approved customer use; ministry tests since early Sep still without published verdict.","url":"https://teslant.com/en/news/tesla-paris-motor-show-2026-fsd-drives-cybercab","source":"TeslAnt","kind":"news"},{"date":"2026-09-08","headline":"Ministry: no major obstacle to EU adaptation so far","snippet":"AFP via Sciences et Avenir: first French FSD supervised tests identified no blocking point that cannot be resolved; system could be adapted with different parameterisation.","url":"https://www.sciencesetavenir.fr/high-tech/transports/tesla-le-fsd-supervise-pourrait-etre-adapte-a-la-reglementation-europeenne_194725","source":"AFP / Sciences et Avenir","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"IT","name":"Italy","populationM":58.9,"status":"reviewing","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"medium","signal":"29 Oct: transport minister Salvini, after a call with Musk, publicly supports swift EU approval of Tesla Assisted Driving. Political lean only — MIT homologation file still open; not an Art.39 recognition.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":"MIT / Motorizzazione","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"2026-Q4 to 2027-Q1","confidence":"medium","path":"either"},"news":[{"date":"2026-10-29","headline":"Salvini backs swift EU approval after Musk call","snippet":"Italy’s transport minister posted that a conversation with Elon Musk was constructive and that Italy supports swift EU approval of Tesla Assisted Driving. Not a national recognition; MIT file remains open. Corriere, LaPresse, HuffPost and Numerama reported the same statement.","url":"https://x.com/matteosalvinimi/status/2115720560994836862","source":"@matteosalvinimi / Corriere","kind":"regulator"},{"date":"2026-07-13","headline":"Application under analysis","snippet":"Tesla files for recognition of RDW approval; MIT confirms documents in analysis phase. Still the last located status of the national file.","url":"https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/4430/tesla-fsd-inches-closer-to-regulatory-approval-in-italy","source":"Not a Tesla App","kind":"news"},{"date":"2026-04-01","headline":"Parliamentary pressure for approval","snippet":"Earlier political push (e.g. Calenda question) to prioritise Italian authorisation.","url":"https://insideevs.it/news/794421/tesla-fsd-italia-calenda-salvini/","source":"InsideEVs IT","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"ES","name":"Spain","populationM":49.1,"status":"reviewing","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"low","signal":"Tesla Europe (16 Sep): 2 years / 460k km Supervised testing across Spain — company claim. Ministerial line still prefers coordinated EU path over unilateral Art.39 shortcut; no customer approval.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":"DGT","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"2026-Q4 to 2027-Q1","confidence":"low","path":"either"},"news":[{"date":"2026-09-16","headline":"Tesla Europe: 2 years / 460,000 km Supervised testing in Spain","snippet":"Official X video: company testing narrative under DGT ES-AV — ‘we have seen it all’. Not a national customer unlock; July Hereu line still EU-coordinated.","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2100188661794881815","source":"@teslaeurope","kind":"social"},{"date":"2026-07-23","headline":"No unilateral go-ahead","snippet":"Minister Hereu: Spain will not adopt RDW approval alone; coordinates with Commission, DGT, UN path.","url":"https://x.com/mgualdo/status/2080338935620800589","source":"Ministerial reply / X","kind":"regulator"},{"date":"2026-06-01","headline":"ES-AV pilot fleet growth","snippet":"Public-road testing under DGT ES-AV programme (tens of cars, tens of thousands of km reported earlier in 2026).","url":"https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-full-self-driving-fsd-testing-gains-major-ground-in-spain/","source":"Teslarati","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"PL","name":"Poland","populationM":36.5,"status":"waiting","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"very-low","signal":"No clear government position located; likely waits on EU-wide path.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"After EU-wide vote","confidence":"very-low","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-08-10","headline":"No public regulatory signal","snippet":"Daily watch: no Polish recognition, ministry statement, or Tesla PL market activation found.","url":null,"source":"Daily watch","kind":"watch"}]},{"code":"RO","name":"Romania","populationM":19,"status":"waiting","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"very-low","signal":"No reliable country-specific position found.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"After EU-wide vote","confidence":"very-low","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-08-10","headline":"No public regulatory signal","snippet":"No Romanian authority decision or Tesla market footnote change located.","url":null,"source":"Daily watch","kind":"watch"}]},{"code":"CZ","name":"Czechia","populationM":10.9,"status":"available","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"high","signal":"Ministry of Transport recognised Dutch RDW provisional Art.39 approval on 21 Sep 2026; Tesla Europe confirms rollout. Seventh EU live market.","approvedOn":"2026-09-21","regulator":"Ministerstvo dopravy","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"available","confidence":"high","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-10-05","headline":"robot*irl: FSD vs Prague worst junctions","snippet":"Creator field test (claim-grade): Model Y HW4 / FSD Supervised v14.2.2.6 through busy Prague junctions after CZ customer rollout. Not a regulatory change.","url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kj4q8BKp6SY","source":"robot*irl","kind":"youtube"},{"date":"2026-09-22","headline":"robot*irl: first customer FSD drive in Prague","snippet":"Tier4 YouTube: owner drive within ~24h of approval — Prague streets, trams, speed bumps. Claim-grade rollout evidence, not regulator proof.","url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DGgjrx-RRw","source":"robot*irl","kind":"youtube"},{"date":"2026-09-21","headline":"Czechia recognises Dutch FSD Supervised approval","snippet":"Official ministry: Art.39 recognition of RDW 10 Apr provisional type approval; SAE L2; driver remains responsible. Tesla Europe: rollout soon.","url":"https://md.gov.cz/Media/Media-a-tiskove-zpravy/Ceska-republika-uznala-prozatimni-schvaleni-system","source":"md.gov.cz","kind":"official"}]},{"code":"PT","name":"Portugal","populationM":10.6,"status":"waiting","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"low","signal":"Tesla PT still lists Portugal as not approved. Soft process signal (4gnews 26 Oct): IMT Legal Office wrote 21 Oct that no technical assessment/parecer on RDW recognition exists, contradicting the 25 Sep government refusal rationale — still not a recognition. Tesla Club Portugal (17 Oct): waiting to reschedule IMT; government prefers EU path. No IMT/DRE instrument through 27 Oct.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":"IMT","highlight":true,"estimate":{"central":"After Dec TCMV (or later national)","confidence":"low","path":"either"},"news":[{"date":"2026-11-04","headline":"EVmag: RDW +10% cap / TAD rename - PT still outside","snippet":"Portuguese recap of RDW's 3 Nov assessment (in-car TAD name; speed margin max +10%, default 0%). Notes PT refused Dutch recognition citing an IMT parecer the IMT says does not exist. Not a new IMT decision or Tesla PT activation.","url":"https://evmag.pt/tesla-assisted-driving-so-10-acima-do-limite/","source":"EVmag.pt","kind":"news"},{"date":"2026-10-26","headline":"IMT says no technical parecer exists on RDW recognition","snippet":"4gnews: Cadavez FOI — IMT Legal (21 Oct) wrote that no technical assessment, parecer, despacho, or inter-entity communications on recognising the Dutch provisional approval exist, contradicting the 25 Sep government claim that refusal rested on an IMT evaluation. Still not a customer approval.","url":"https://4gnews.pt/conducao-autonoma-da-tesla-em-portugal-problema-e-maior-do-que-se-pensava/","source":"4gnews / IMT Legal (via FOI)","kind":"news"},{"date":"2026-10-17","headline":"Tesla Club Portugal: still waiting on IMT (not approval)","snippet":"Club status note (Long Range): working group and a 29 Sep PSD meeting; IMT cancelled the 25 Sep meeting; ANSR opinion is part of the national file; government still prefers the EU framework. No customer green light.","url":"https://longrange.pt/2026/10/17/fsd-supervisionado-portugal-tesla-club-portugal-ponto-situacao/","source":"Long Range / Tesla Club Portugal","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"SE","name":"Sweden","populationM":10.6,"status":"opposed","voteLean":"no","confidence":"high","signal":"Formal No path unless speed-offset resolved. DE/Tesla ≤10% cap (6 Oct) partially addresses the dispute but Sweden has not withdrawn its written objection. Tesla Europe (11 Sep) testing narrative only.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":"Trafikverket / Transportstyrelsen","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"Only if speed concerns resolved","confidence":"medium","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-10-06","headline":"DE/Tesla ≤10% speed deal — SE objection still open","snippet":"Germany accepted max 10% over posted limit in EU process talks. Sweden's formal Speed Offset objection (Apr letter) not reported withdrawn; ETSC reject brief (29 Sep) still on record.","url":"https://www.bmv.de/SharedDocs/DE/Artikel/StV/Digitalisierung-der-Mobilitaet/aktueller-stand-tesla-assistenzsysteme.html","source":"BMV / daily watch","kind":"watch"},{"date":"2026-09-11","headline":"Tesla Europe: nearly a year of Supervised testing in Sweden","snippet":"Official video/post: city, rural, Nordic weather. Company testing claim — not national customer approval.","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2098366703285506550","source":"@teslaeurope","kind":"social"},{"date":"2026-06-18","headline":"Recommends EU rejection unless speed-offset fixed","snippet":"Swedish authorities urge No while the system can deliberately exceed posted limits — strongest formal Nordic opposition signal.","url":"https://electrek.co/2026/06/18/sweden-tesla-fsd-speeding-eu-vote/","source":"Electrek","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"GR","name":"Greece","populationM":10.4,"status":"reviewing","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"low","signal":"Reportedly sought fast-track national recognition of the Dutch approval.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"2026-Q3 to 2026-Q4","confidence":"low","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-06-01","headline":"Fast-track interest reported","snippet":"ETSC/coverage grouped Greece with states exploring faster recognition of the Dutch certificate.","url":"https://etsc.eu/lithuania-and-estonia-authorise-tesla-fsd-with-belgium-and-greece-fast-tracking/","source":"ETSC","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"HU","name":"Hungary","populationM":9.6,"status":"reviewing","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"low","signal":"Government examining introduction; political interest in being a frontrunner, no decision yet.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"2026-Q4","confidence":"low","path":"either"},"news":[{"date":"2026-06-24","headline":"Minister: want frontrunners, not followers","snippet":"Science/tech minister says FSD discussed; European example exists; no government decision yet.","url":"https://infostart.hu/belfold/2026/06/24/a-magyar-kormany-nal-is-teritekre-kerult-a-tesla-onvezeto-rendszere","source":"Infostart","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"AT","name":"Austria","populationM":9.2,"status":"waiting","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"very-low","signal":"No reliable country-specific position found.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"After EU-wide vote","confidence":"very-low","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-08-10","headline":"No public regulatory signal","snippet":"No Austrian recognition or ministry FSD stance located in daily watch.","url":null,"source":"Daily watch","kind":"watch"}]},{"code":"BG","name":"Bulgaria","populationM":6.4,"status":"waiting","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"very-low","signal":"No reliable country-specific position found.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"After EU-wide vote","confidence":"very-low","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-08-10","headline":"No public regulatory signal","snippet":"No Bulgarian authority decision found.","url":null,"source":"Daily watch","kind":"watch"}]},{"code":"FI","name":"Finland","populationM":5.6,"status":"available","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"high","signal":"Traficom (10 Nov recognition; published 11 Nov) recognised Dutch RDW provisional type approval for Tesla Assisted Driving — eleventh EU market. Tesla may offer immediately; @teslaeurope: rollout begins soon; @elonmusk amplified 17:11Z. National recognition does not bind Finland in the TCMV vote. Winter/camera caveats noted; driver remains fully responsible. TeslaFi/Teslant (claim-grade, 11 Nov evening): a handful of Finnish HW4 cars received rename build 2026.39.100 — not proof the feature is switched on, and no Finnish price from Tesla.","approvedOn":"2026-11-10","regulator":"Traficom","highlight":true,"estimate":{"central":"available","confidence":"high","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-11-11","headline":"Tesla Europe: now approved in Finland — rollout begins soon","snippet":"@teslaeurope (06:18Z): Now approved in Finland 🇫🇮 — Rollout begins soon. @elonmusk (17:11Z) quoted it: “Tesla self-driving now approved in Finland.” Same approval, not a new market. No official OTA date or Finnish price. Claim-grade only: Teslant cites TeslaFi showing nine Finnish cars on rename build 2026.39.100 by 22:16Z — not confirmation the feature is on.","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2120400770952745439","source":"Tesla Europe","kind":"social"},{"date":"2026-11-10","headline":"Traficom recognises RDW approval — 11th EU market","snippet":"Traficom recognised Dutch provisional type approval on 10 Nov (published 11 Nov). Tesla Assisted Driving / Avustettu ajo may be offered immediately. Does not bind Finland’s TCMV vote; EU-wide expected during coming winter. Reuters corroborates.","url":"https://www.traficom.fi/en/news/teslas-driver-assistance-system-now-permitted-finnish-roads","source":"Traficom","kind":"approval"},{"date":"2026-06-23","headline":"May approve before EU vote","snippet":"Reuters: Traficom reviewing Dutch approval; possible faster national schedule after summer; winter and speed-offset questions open.","url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/finland-may-approve-teslas-supervised-self-driving-software-before-eu-vote-2026-06-23/","source":"Reuters","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"SK","name":"Slovakia","populationM":5.4,"status":"available","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"high","signal":"Ministry of Transport (mindop.sk 16 Oct) recognised Dutch RDW provisional type approval — ninth EU market. @teslaeurope same day: rollout begins soon. Slovak press (Pravda / Startstop, 20 Oct): customer OTA enable underway, about €99/mo incl. VAT via the Tesla app; HW4 first, HW3 v14 Lite said to be in preparation. Not a Tesla IR post.","approvedOn":"2026-10-16","regulator":"Ministry of Transport SR","highlight":true,"estimate":{"central":"available","confidence":"high","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-10-20","headline":"Slovak press: customer OTA enable underway","snippet":"Pravda and Startstop (20 Oct): owners can subscribe at about €99/month incl. VAT in the Tesla app (Upgrades) and the car downloads the update. HW4 first; a modified v14 Lite is described as in preparation for HW3. Not a new @teslaeurope post — rollout had been \"soon\" since 16 Oct.","url":"https://www.pravda.sk/auto/magazin/clanok/2062709-tesla-fsd-pozrite-si-prve-video-ako-tesla-3-sama-soferuje-na-slovensku","source":"Pravda / Startstop","kind":"news"},{"date":"2026-10-16","headline":"Tesla Europe: now approved in Slovakia — rollout begins soon","snippet":"@teslaeurope official post; @elonmusk amplified (\"Tesla supervised self-driving approved in Slovakia\"). Matches Ministry Art.39 recognition; customer OTA reported ~20 Oct.","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2111095942015566145","source":"Tesla Europe","kind":"social"},{"date":"2026-10-16","headline":"Ministry recognises RDW FSD approval — ninth EU market","snippet":"Mindop.sk: Slovakia officially recognised Dutch RDW provisional type approval; drivers may use FSD/Assisted Driving with driver fully responsible. TASR / Denník N / Startitup corroborate.","url":"https://www.mindop.sk/media/tlacove-spravy/detail/slovensko-umoznilo-ciastocne-autonomne-riadenie-aut","source":"Ministry of Transport SR","kind":"regulator"}]},{"code":"IE","name":"Ireland","populationM":5.4,"status":"reviewing","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"medium","signal":"Under review; Not a Tesla App (29 Sep) says Tesla actively working with Irish regulators — soft national-path signal, not approval.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":"NSAI","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"2026-Q4","confidence":"medium","path":"either"},"news":[{"date":"2026-09-29","headline":"Talks with Irish regulators reported (claim-grade)","snippet":"Not a Tesla App: Tesla actively working with Irish regulators; Ireland could be next national recognition. Soft process signal — not NSAI approval.","url":"https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/4747/tesla-wins-approval-to-launch-fsd-supervised-in-croatia","source":"Not a Tesla App","kind":"news"},{"date":"2026-06-09","headline":"Engagement with Tesla reported","snippet":"Coverage of Irish government/NSAI engagement around FSD authorisation pathway.","url":"https://electrek.co/2026/06/09/tesla-fsd-approved-denmark-fourth-european-country/","source":"Electrek (context)","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"HR","name":"Croatia","populationM":3.9,"status":"available","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"high","signal":"Tesla Europe (29 Sep): approved; rollout soon. DZM recognised RDW provisional Art.39 (N1/HINA). Reuters + @Tesla HQ corroborate. Eighth EU market.","approvedOn":"2026-09-29","regulator":"DZM (Drzavni zavod za mjeriteljstvo)","highlight":true,"estimate":{"central":"available","confidence":"high","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-09-30","headline":"DZM recognition of RDW Art.39 corroborated","snippet":"fsd-eu-tracker / N1 (HINA): Croatian State Office for Metrology (DZM) letter to Tesla Hrvatska recognises Dutch RDW provisional type approval for use in Croatia. Map unchanged at 8/27.","url":"https://fsd-eu-tracker.de/en/","source":"N1/HINA via fsd-eu-tracker","kind":"regulator"},{"date":"2026-09-29","headline":"FSD Supervised approved — eighth EU market","snippet":"Tesla Europe: approved in Croatia, rollout soon. Reuters corroborates national go-ahead; EU-wide vote still Dec earliest.","url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-receives-approval-roll-out-self-driving-software-croatia-2026-09-29/","source":"Reuters / @teslaeurope","kind":"news"},{"date":"2026-09-29","headline":"Tesla Europe: approved in Croatia","snippet":"Official: FSD Supervised now approved in Croatia — rollout will begin soon.","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2104844301461262602","source":"@teslaeurope","kind":"social"}]},{"code":"LV","name":"Latvia","populationM":1.9,"status":"available","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"high","signal":"CSDD (26 Oct) recognised Dutch RDW provisional Art.39 approval for Tesla Assisted Driving — tenth EU market; Baltics complete. Soft (31 Oct): public store demos reported at Tesla Riga (Spice) via Ben Geskin / TeslaNorth; customer OTA still 'soon'. CSDD notes reduced max speed-offset threshold, auto-reset of manual offset after each trip, and stronger driver monitoring. Driver remains fully responsible.","approvedOn":"2026-10-26","regulator":"CSDD","highlight":true,"estimate":{"central":"available","confidence":"high","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-10-31","headline":"Riga store public demos reported — customer OTA still soon","snippet":"Ben Geskin (31 Oct): Tesla invited him for an early Latvia Assisted Driving ride; TeslaNorth says public test drives already bookable at the Spice shopping-centre store. Not a new recognition; fleet OTA date still unpublished.","url":"https://teslanorth.com/2026/10/31/latvia-fsd-riga-test-drives/","source":"TeslaNorth / @BenGeskin","kind":"news"},{"date":"2026-10-26","headline":"Tesla Assisted Driving approved — 10th EU market","snippet":"CSDD recognised RDW provisional EU type approval; Tesla Europe: Now approved in Latvia, rollout begins soon. Completes the Baltics (LT/EE/LV). Level 2 — driver fully responsible.","url":"https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/2114667445223149619","source":"@teslaeurope / BB.LV (CSDD)","kind":"approval"},{"date":"2026-10-26","headline":"CSDD: recognition with speed-offset and monitoring changes","snippet":"BB.LV reports CSDD reviewed RDW docs plus manufacturer changes: lower max speed exceedance, manual offset auto-resets after each trip, strengthened driver monitoring. Winter/gravel caveats noted.","url":"https://lat.bb.lv/raksts/musu-latvija/2026/10/26/latvija-atzist-tesla-vaditaja-paligsistemu-117934","source":"BB.LV / CSDD","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"SI","name":"Slovenia","populationM":2.1,"status":"available","voteLean":"yes","confidence":"high","signal":"AVP recognised RDW temporary Art.39 approval (7 Sep 2026). Parliament adopted hands-off rules for approved SAE L1–L3 systems on 20 Oct (49–3); State Secretary Dvornik told Tesla Mag they apply the day after Official Gazette publication. Effective date not independently confirmed.","approvedOn":"2026-09-07","regulator":"AVP (Slovenian Traffic Safety Agency)","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"Live / rolling out","confidence":"high","path":"national"},"news":[{"date":"2026-10-20","headline":"Parliament adopts hands-off rules for approved systems","snippet":"National Assembly passed Road Traffic Rules amendments 49–3, allowing hands off the wheel on an approved SAE L1–L3 system if the driver stays attentive. State Secretary Marko Dvornik (Tesla Mag, published 30 Oct) says the rules apply the day after Official Gazette publication. Not a new recognition — SI already recognised RDW on 7 Sep. Gazette date not independently confirmed.","url":"https://www.tesla-mag.com/en/slovenia-fsd-interview-marko-dvornik/","source":"Tesla Mag / STA","kind":"regulator"},{"date":"2026-09-12","headline":"YouTube: first customer FSD drive in Slovenia (claim-grade)","snippet":"Owner channel: Model 3 Highland received FSD update 9 Sep; night drive near Vrhpolje. Supports early SI rollout; not regulatory news.","url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IU7VHIgYBrM","source":"Jan Skočaj","kind":"youtube"},{"date":"2026-09-07","headline":"FSD Supervised approved — sixth EU market","snippet":"Tesla Europe + Elon: approved in Slovenia, rollout soon. AVP confirmed recognition of Dutch RDW temporary type approval to Reuters/gov.si.","url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/slovenia-clears-teslas-fsd-driver-assistance-ahead-eu-vote-2026-09-08/","source":"Reuters / @teslaeurope","kind":"news"}]},{"code":"LU","name":"Luxembourg","populationM":0.7,"status":"waiting","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"low","signal":"Minister Backes (written answer 20 Oct, QP 4802): FSD Supervised is advanced driver assistance, not automated driving; Luxembourg was not part of the Dutch procedure; any framework change must use EU procedures plus a rigorous safety assessment. No national recognition announced. Only Benelux state without customer FSD.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":"Ministry of Mobility and Public Works","highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"After EU-wide vote","confidence":"low","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-10-20","headline":"Backes: EU procedure, not a national recognition","snippet":"Written answer to QP 4802 (Meris Sehovic): Tesla FSD Supervised needs permanent driver supervision and is not automated driving. Luxembourg was not involved in the Dutch RDW procedure. The government supports a harmonised EU approach; any change must rest on EU procedures and a rigorous safety assessment. No customer approval.","url":"https://wdocs-pub.chd.lu/docs/Dossier_Question_ecrite00051443/20261020_ReponseParlementaire.pdf","source":"Chambre des Députés / Yuriko Backes","kind":"official"}]},{"code":"MT","name":"Malta","populationM":0.6,"status":"waiting","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"very-low","signal":"No reliable country-specific position found.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"After EU-wide vote","confidence":"very-low","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-08-10","headline":"No public regulatory signal","snippet":"No Maltese decision found.","url":null,"source":"Daily watch","kind":"watch"}]},{"code":"CY","name":"Cyprus","populationM":1,"status":"waiting","voteLean":"abstain","confidence":"very-low","signal":"No reliable country-specific position found.","approvedOn":null,"regulator":null,"highlight":false,"estimate":{"central":"After EU-wide vote","confidence":"very-low","path":"eu-wide"},"news":[{"date":"2026-08-10","headline":"No public regulatory signal","snippet":"No Cypriot decision found.","url":null,"source":"Daily watch","kind":"watch"}]}],"changelog":[{"date":"2026-11-12","title":"Quiet scrape: map still 11/27; Musk amplified Finland (same approval); agenda unpublished; odds held","body":"No new national recognition and no published December TCMV agenda. fsd-eu-tracker.de still 11/27 ~ 15.5% (latest still Traficom 11 Nov). RDW news index: top FSD item still 3 Nov TAD/+10%. Just-Auto / FleetPoint / Euronews / Yle / Kauppalehti are Finland echoes, not a 12th market. @elonmusk 11 Nov 17:11Z (after the prior scrape closed): “Tesla self-driving now approved in Finland,” quoting @teslaeurope 06:18Z — logged in socialEvidence; not a new market. from:teslaeurope / from:Tesla since 11 Nov: no further EU availability post. Soft: Teslant cites TeslaFi (nine Finnish cars on rename build 2026.39.100 by 22:16Z) — claim-grade, feature-on not shown, no Finnish price. Comitology: Dec agenda still unpublished (soft CIRCABC Dec 1 folder from 10 Nov still not an agenda). IMT/DRE/Tesla PT: Portugal still absent. Tier4: IntelligentTesla (28 Oct explainer unchanged), Now You Know / Numerama / Dirty Tesla / AI DRIVR / BestInTESLA / Tesla / Sawyer Merritt / robot*irl / Steven Peeters — no new regulator-grade video; Tesla Jigsaw R171 recap already logged; Elektro Driver / small channels restated Finland and an unpublished 1 Dec date. latestNews unchanged (quiet). Odds held (Dec EU 0.48 / EOY 0.54; PT Dec 0.16 / EOY 0.34).","kind":"quiet","countries":["FI","PT","NL","DE"]},{"date":"2026-11-11","title":"Material: Finland 11th EU market (Traficom + Tesla Europe); map 11/27 ~ 15.5%; odds nudged","body":"Traficom recognised Dutch RDW provisional Art.39 approval for Tesla Assisted Driving on 10 Nov (press 11 Nov 07:53 local); Tesla may offer immediately. @teslaeurope 11 Nov 06:18Z: Now approved in Finland — Rollout begins soon. Reuters / fsd-eu-tracker.de / weneedfsd.eu corroborate. Map 10/27→11/27 (~14.3%→15.5%). National recognition does not bind Finland’s TCMV vote; Traficom expects EU-wide during coming winter. December TCMV agenda still unpublished (soft CIRCABC Dec 1 folder from 10 Nov still empty). RDW news: no newer FSD after 3 Nov. No @elonmusk FI amplify. IMT/DRE/Tesla PT: Portugal still absent. Tier4: IntelligentTesla / Now You Know / Numerama / Dirty Tesla / AI DRIVR / BestInTESLA / Tesla / Tesla Jigsaw / Sawyer Merritt / robot*irl / Steven Peeters — no new regulator-grade YouTube beyond FI wire echoes. latestNews: FI approval prepended (LV 26 Oct dropped). Odds: Dec EU 0.45→0.48 / EOY 0.51→0.54 / mid-2027 0.82→0.83 / EOY 2027 0.89→0.90; PT Dec 0.15→0.16 / EOY 0.32→0.34. Coverage now=11.","kind":"approval","countries":["FI","PT","NL","DE"]},{"date":"2026-11-10","title":"Quiet scrape: map still 10/27; soft Dec 1 folder claims; agenda empty; odds held","body":"No new national recognition and no published December TCMV agenda. fsd-eu-tracker.de still 10/27 ~ 14.3% (latest still RDW 3 Nov). RDW news index: top FSD item still 3 Nov TAD/+10%. Soft: @FSDWatcherDE (10 Nov 11:04Z) and @FSD_DE say a CIRCABC folder '120th meeting on 1 December 2026' appeared ~09:46 UTC and is empty (quoting @RonnyGolisch). This scrape could not open the JS CIRCABC library, so the folder is fan-reported, not an official agenda, and not a scheduled vote. Latest published TCMV agenda still the 6 Oct draft (Art.39 discussion only). Long Range PT 9 Nov and Tesla Mag 8 Nov are RDW/ten-market echoes. X from:teslaeurope since 7 Nov: none. @elonmusk 9-10 Nov is US FSD (Jay Leno RT), not EU availability. @Tesla 8 Nov FSD clip is US. IMT/DRE/Tesla PT: Portugal still absent. Tier4: AI DRIVR 9 Nov is US ownership, not an EU approval; Tesla Jigsaw R171/v15 recaps already in window; Nevo NL ride-along 3 Nov already noted; IntelligentTesla / Now You Know / Numerama / Dirty Tesla / BestInTESLA / Tesla / Sawyer Merritt / robot*irl / Steven Peeters - no new regulator-grade approval. latestNews unchanged (quiet). Odds held (Dec EU 0.45 / EOY 0.51; PT Dec 0.15 / EOY 0.32).","kind":"quiet","countries":["PT","NL","DE"]},{"date":"2026-11-09","title":"Quiet scrape: map still 10/27; Dec agenda unpublished; odds held","body":"Confirmed 13:41Z. No new national recognition and no December TCMV agenda. fsd-eu-tracker.de still 10/27 ~ 14.3% (latest still RDW 3 Nov). RDW news index: top FSD item still 3 Nov TAD/+10%. Comitology: no December agenda located (latest TCMV agenda still 6 Oct discussion-only; CIRCABC meetings file still the Oct calendar). Soft: Tesla Mag 8 Nov restates the same ten markets — not a new recognition. FSDWatcherDE 7 Nov agenda-timing note is a fan window (about 9-20 Nov), not a published agenda. X from:teslaeurope / from:elonmusk / from:Tesla FSD+EU since 7 Nov: none. IMT/DRE/Tesla PT: Portugal still absent (4gnews 26 Oct / EVmag 27 Oct and 4 Nov unchanged). Tier4: Tesla Jigsaw 1 Nov R171 and 7 Nov 'What's REALLY Going On?' are claim-grade recaps already in window; Nevo NL ride-along 3 Nov already noted; IntelligentTesla / Now You Know / Numerama / Dirty Tesla / AI DRIVR / BestInTESLA / Tesla / Tesla Jigsaw / Sawyer Merritt / robot*irl / Steven Peeters - no new regulator-grade approval. latestNews unchanged (quiet). Odds held (Dec EU 0.45 / EOY 0.51; PT Dec 0.15 / EOY 0.32).","kind":"quiet","countries":["PT","NL","DE"]},{"date":"2026-11-08","title":"Quiet scrape: map still 10/27; Dec agenda unpublished; odds held","body":"No new national recognition and no December TCMV agenda. fsd-eu-tracker.de still 10/27 ~ 14.3% (latest still RDW 3 Nov). RDW news index: top FSD item still 3 Nov TAD/+10%. Comitology: no December agenda located (latest TCMV agenda still 6 Oct discussion-only). X from:teslaeurope / from:elonmusk FSD+EU since 6 Nov: none. Soft: Cybercab Zurich display stop closes 8 Nov (announced 2 Nov; not customer Assisted Driving). Fan Dec 1/8 TCMV date guesses are not an agenda. IMT/DRE/Tesla PT: Portugal still absent. Tier4: BestInTESLA clip 7 Nov rehashes Italy/RDW already logged; Tesla Jigsaw 1 Nov R171 already logged; Nevo NL ride-along 3 Nov already noted; IntelligentTesla / Now You Know / Numerama / Dirty Tesla / AI DRIVR / BestInTESLA / Tesla / Tesla Jigsaw / Sawyer Merritt / robot*irl / Steven Peeters - no new regulator-grade approval. latestNews unchanged (quiet). Odds held (Dec EU 0.45 / EOY 0.51; PT Dec 0.15 / EOY 0.32).","kind":"quiet","countries":["PT","NL","DE"]},{"date":"2026-11-07","title":"Quiet scrape: map still 10/27; Dec agenda unpublished; slight Dec odds trim","body":"No new national recognition and no December TCMV agenda. fsd-eu-tracker.de still 10/27 ~ 14.3% (latest still RDW 3 Nov; time machine still 4 Nov). RDW news index: top FSD item still 3 Nov TAD/+10%. Comitology: latest located TCMV agenda remains the 6 Oct draft (Art.39 discussion only); CIRCABC meetings file still v1.15 of 16 Oct. Soft: Frandroid 6 Nov / Yahoo 6 Nov / NeoTeo 6 Nov are RDW echoes. FSDJourneyUK 7 Nov restates the same 10 EU countries (UK VCA not filed - not an EU market). X keyword 429; semantic since 5 Nov is fan RDW/Salvini echoes only - no new @teslaeurope/@elonmusk/@Tesla availability (last Tesla Europe approval post remains Latvia 26 Oct). IMT/DRE/Tesla PT: Portugal still absent. Tier4: NotAnFSDTracker 6 Nov is an R171 Series 02 checklist (claim-grade, not a vote); Numerama 4 Nov BMW city Level 2 is a competitor product already noted; Nevo NL ride-along 3 Nov already noted; IntelligentTesla / Now You Know / Numerama / Dirty Tesla / AI DRIVR / BestInTESLA / Tesla / Tesla Jigsaw / Sawyer Merritt / robot*irl / Steven Peeters - no new regulator-grade approval. latestNews unchanged (quiet). Odds: Dec EU 0.47->0.45 / EOY 0.53->0.51; PT Dec 0.16->0.15 / EOY 0.33->0.32, held on this confirmation (agenda still unpublished ~3 weeks out).","kind":"quiet","countries":["PT","NL","DE"]},{"date":"2026-11-06","title":"Quiet scrape: map still 10/27; Dec agenda unpublished; odds held","body":"No new national recognition and no December TCMV agenda. fsd-eu-tracker.de still 10/27 ~ 14.3% (latest development still RDW 3 Nov; time machine shows 10 countries on 4 Nov). RDW news index fetched 6 Nov: top FSD item still 3 Nov TAD/+10%; next FSD item is 17 Jun. Electrek / NOTA / EVmag.pt echoes already logged. X keyword this fire: from:teslaeurope since 5 Nov none; from:elonmusk FSD/EU since 5 Nov none. Catch-up: @teslaeurope 4 Nov 19:41Z Berlin Engineering Center (Koepenick) — not customer availability. BMW city Level 2 (announced 2 Nov, Germany from 2027, UN R171 Series 02) is a competitor product, not a Tesla approval or a vote. IMT/DRE: Portugal still absent (4gnews 26 Oct; EVmag 4 Nov restates the RDW cap and the IMT no-parecer). Tier4: IntelligentTesla / Now You Know / Numerama / Dirty Tesla / AI DRIVR / BestInTESLA / Tesla / Tesla Jigsaw / Sawyer Merritt / robot*irl / Steven Peeters — no new regulator-grade approval since 5 Nov (German RDW recaps 3-5 Nov are echoes). latestNews unchanged (quiet). Odds held (Dec EU 0.47 / EOY 0.53; PT Dec 0.16 / EOY 0.33).","kind":"quiet","countries":["PT","NL","DE"]},{"date":"2026-11-05","title":"Quiet scrape: map still 10/27; Cybercab Zürich opens (display-only); Dec agenda unpublished; odds held","body":"No new national recognition and no December TCMV agenda since 3 Nov. Soft: Cybercab Europe display tour opens today at Auto Zürich (already announced 2 Nov; not customer Assisted Driving). fsd-eu-tracker.de still 10/27 ~ 14.3% (as of 5 Nov; latest still RDW 3 Nov). RDW news index: no newer FSD item after 3 Nov TAD/+10%. Electrek/Tesla Mag/EVmag.pt echoes already logged. X keyword rate-limited; semantic since 4 Nov = fan RDW echoes only — no new @teslaeurope/@elonmusk availability. IMT/DRE/Tesla PT: Portugal still absent. Tier4: German RDW recap 4 Nov / WeOnWheels short 3 Nov / Predi ES demo 3 Nov / Nevo NL ride-along 3 Nov already noted; IntelligentTesla / Now You Know / Numerama / Dirty Tesla / AI DRIVR / BestInTESLA / Tesla / Tesla Jigsaw / Sawyer Merritt / robot*irl / Steven Peeters — no new regulator-grade approval. latestNews unchanged (quiet). Odds held (Dec EU 0.47 / EOY 0.53; PT Dec 0.16 / EOY 0.33).","kind":"quiet","countries":["PT","NL","DE"]},{"date":"2026-11-04","title":"Quiet scrape: map still 10/27; RDW echoes only; Dec agenda unpublished; odds held","body":"No new national recognition and no December TCMV agenda since 3 Nov. Soft: Electrek / Tesla Mag / EVmag.pt / motor.es / Teslers.it / ITavisen amplify yesterday's RDW TAD rename +10% speed-cap notice - already in ledger. fsd-eu-tracker.de and weneedfsd.eu still 10/27 ~ 14.3% (as of 3-4 Nov). RDW news index: no newer FSD item. X from:teslaeurope since 2 Nov Cybercab tour: none; from:elonmusk: no EU availability. IMT/DRE/Tesla PT: Portugal still absent. Tier4: Tesla Jigsaw 1 Nov R171 already logged; Nevo EV Review 3 Nov NL ride-along (claim-grade, already-live NL); Predi 3 Nov ES demo (not customer ES); IntelligentTesla / Now You Know / Numerama / Dirty Tesla / AI DRIVR / BestInTESLA / Tesla / Sawyer Merritt / robot*irl / Steven Peeters - no new regulator-grade approval. latestNews unchanged (quiet). Odds held (Dec EU 0.47 / EOY 0.53; PT Dec 0.16 / EOY 0.33).","kind":"quiet","countries":["PT","NL","DE"]},{"date":"2026-11-03","title":"RDW approves TAD rename and +10% speed cap; map still 10/27; Dec odds 0.43→0.47","body":"RDW news (3 Nov 2026): assessed Tesla’s requested changes into the existing FSD Supervised approval. In-car name Tesla Assisted Driving (HW4+); speed margin max +10% (was +50%), default 0% and other speed functions off at each start. No adverse effects. Approval remains valid and is not extended. RDW informed BE, HR, CZ, DK, EE, LV, LT, SK and SI. TCMV still ongoing; RDW will not comment. Not a new market. fsd-eu-tracker.de still 10/27 ~ 14.3% as of 1 Nov (latest stories still 29 Oct). weneedfsd.eu as of 3 Nov still 10/27. X from:teslaeurope / from:elonmusk / from:Tesla since 2 Nov: no new availability post (Cybercab tour already logged). IMT/DRE/Tesla PT: Portugal still absent (4gnews 26 Oct / EVmag 27 Oct unchanged). Tier4: Tesla Jigsaw 1 Nov R171 walkthrough already logged; IntelligentTesla / Now You Know / Numerama / Dirty Tesla / AI DRIVR / BestInTESLA / Tesla / Sawyer Merritt / robot*irl / Steven Peeters — no new regulator-grade approval. latestNews: RDW clause prepended; 26 Oct Latvia clause dropped. Odds: Dec EU 0.43→0.47 / EOY 0.49→0.53 / mid-2027 0.80→0.82 / EOY 2027 0.88→0.89; PT Dec 0.15→0.16 / EOY 0.31→0.33 / mid 0.68→0.70 / EOY 0.85→0.86. Coverage Dec high 13→14.","kind":"process","countries":["NL","DE","PT"]},{"date":"2026-11-02","title":"Quiet scrape: map still 10/27; Cybercab tour is display-only; odds held","body":"No new national recognition and no December TCMV agenda since 1 Nov. Soft: @teslaeurope 2 Nov 08:24Z announced a Cybercab static-display tour from 5 Nov (tesla.com/events/cybercab-is-touring-europe; TeslaNorth and Tesla Mag same day — Zürich first, then DE/SK/CZ/PL/RO/HU/BE/AT into January). Not customer Assisted Driving and not a vote. fsd-eu-tracker.de still 10/27 ~ 14.3% as of 1 Nov (latest items still Italy Salvini and Norway Vegvesen, both 29 Oct). RDW news: no FSD item after 17 Jun 2026 (latest item 22 Oct is BRP deregistration). Comitology: no December agenda (CIRCABC meetings file still v1.15 of 16 Oct; fan posts still cite a 1 Dec meeting with vote undecided). X from:elonmusk since 31 Oct: no FSD/EU availability post. Portugal: IMT no-parecer FOI unchanged (4gnews 26 Oct / EVmag 27 Oct). Tier4: Tesla Jigsaw 1 Nov R171 Series 02 walkthrough already logged; IntelligentTesla / Now You Know / Numerama / Dirty Tesla / AI DRIVR / BestInTESLA / Tesla / Sawyer Merritt / robot*irl / Steven Peeters — no new regulator-grade approval. latestNews unchanged (quiet). Odds held (Dec EU 0.43 / EOY 0.49; PT Dec 0.15 / EOY 0.31).","kind":"quiet","countries":["PT","DE","IT","LV"]},{"date":"2026-11-01","title":"Quiet scrape: map still 10/27; Riga demos soft; Dec agenda unpublished; odds held","body":"No new national recognition and no TCMV agenda since 31 Oct. Soft: TeslaNorth / Ben Geskin (31 Oct) report public Tesla Assisted Driving demos at Tesla Riga (Spice) — already-live LV; customer OTA still soon. fsd-eu-tracker.de still 10/27 ~ 14.3% (latest items still Italy Salvini and Norway Vegvesen, both 29 Oct; time machine shows 10 countries on 1 Nov). RDW news: no FSD item after 17 Jun 2026. Comitology: no December agenda published. X from:teslaeurope since 30 Oct: none. from:elonmusk since 30 Oct: no EU availability. NotAnFSDTracker 1 Nov HW3/RDW FOI rehash (May 2026 correspondence; no HW3 application filed) — claim-grade, not a market change. Portugal: IMT no-parecer FOI unchanged. Tier4: Tesla Jigsaw 1 Nov R171 Series 02 walkthrough claim-grade from already-logged NO/DE/LV statements; IntelligentTesla / Now You Know / Numerama / Dirty Tesla / AI DRIVR / BestInTESLA / Tesla / Sawyer Merritt / robot*irl / Steven Peeters — no new regulator-grade approval. latestNews unchanged (quiet). Odds held (Dec EU 0.43 / EOY 0.49; PT Dec 0.15 / EOY 0.31).","kind":"quiet","countries":["PT","IT","DE","LV"]},{"date":"2026-10-31","title":"Quiet scrape: map still 10/27; Dec agenda unpublished; odds held","body":"No new national recognition and no TCMV agenda since 30 Oct. fsd-eu-tracker.de still 10/27 ~ 14.3% (latest items still Italy Salvini and Norway Vegvesen, both 29 Oct). RDW news: no FSD item after 17 Jun 2026 (22 Oct item is BRP deregistration). Comitology: no December agenda. X from:teslaeurope since 30 Oct: none. from:elonmusk: Neuralink/Blindsight and US FSD trial RTs only — no EU availability. Tesla Mag consult widget dated 30 Oct but last content update remains 27 Oct with no cleared answers published. ETSC 30 Oct restatement already logged. Portugal: Long Range archive 30 Oct is a Supercharger vote, not IMT. Tier4: Dirty Tesla 29 Oct is a US 750-mile run; Out of Spec/Dirty Tesla 30 Oct is a private US track; IntelligentTesla / Now You Know / Numerama / AI DRIVR / BestInTESLA / Tesla / Tesla Jigsaw / Sawyer Merritt / robot*irl / Steven Peeters — no new regulator-grade approval. Odds held (Dec EU 0.43 / EOY 0.49; PT Dec 0.15 / EOY 0.31).","kind":"quiet","countries":["PT","IT","DE","LV"]},{"date":"2026-10-30","title":"Vegvesen: Dec TCMV vote not decided; map still 10/27; Dec odds 0.51->0.43","body":"Statens vegvesen driver-assistance page (updated 29 Oct; ITavisen 30 Oct): no vote at the 6 Oct TCMV because a majority of member-state approval authorities signalled they were not ready; next meeting is December 2026 but a vote is not decided; decision wording unfinished. Tesla renamed the system, moderated safety marketing, and dropped the lateral-acceleration exemption; Norway still expects better speed-limit behaviour, will not front-run UN R171, and has not cleared customer demos (materials called misleading). EEA only — no EU vote and not a new market. fsd-eu-tracker.de still 10/27 ~ 14.3%. RDW news: no FSD item after 17 Jun. Comitology: no December agenda. X: no new @teslaeurope or @elonmusk EU-availability post (Tesla Europe 29 Oct was Green NCAP only). ETSC 30 Oct restates the 6 Oct BMV rename and 10% offset — no new facts. SI: parliament adopted hands-off rules 20 Oct; gazette effective date not confirmed. Portugal still absent. Tier4: robot*irl Bratislava (26 Oct) already logged (InsideEVs recap 29 Oct); Tesla Jigsaw 21 Oct already logged; IntelligentTesla / Now You Know / Numerama / Dirty Tesla / AI DRIVR / BestInTESLA / Tesla / Sawyer Merritt / Steven Peeters — no new regulator-grade approval. Odds: Dec EU 0.51->0.43 / EOY 0.57->0.49 / mid-2027 0.83->0.80 / EOY 2027 0.89->0.88; PT Dec 0.18->0.15 / EOY 0.36->0.31. Coverage Dec high 15->13.","kind":"process","countries":["PT","IT","DE","SI"]},{"date":"2026-10-29","title":"Italy minister backs swift EU approval; map still 10/27; Dec odds 0.47->0.51","body":"Matteo Salvini (@matteosalvinimi, 29 Oct 08:21Z) posted after a call with Musk that Italy supports swift EU approval of Tesla Assisted Driving. Corroborated the same day by Corriere, LaPresse, HuffPost and Numerama. Musk replied 13:02Z 'Much appreciated. Thank you!'. Not an MIT Art.39 recognition and not a TCMV date. fsd-eu-tracker.de still 10/27 ~ 14.3% (latest Latvia 26 Oct; CH FEDRO 28 Oct non-EU note: Tesla has not applied in Switzerland). RDW news: no FSD item after 17 Jun 2026. Comitology: no December TCMV agenda published (latest located meeting remains 6 Oct). Portugal: no new IMT/DRE/Tesla PT footnote. Tier4: Numerama covered Salvini as an article; robot*irl Bratislava (26 Oct) already logged; IntelligentTesla / Now You Know / Dirty Tesla / AI DRIVR / BestInTESLA / Tesla / Tesla Jigsaw / Sawyer Merritt / Steven Peeters — no new regulator-grade approval clip. IT voteLean abstain->yes. Odds: Dec EU 0.47->0.51 / EOY 0.53->0.57 / mid-2027 0.81->0.83 / EOY 2027 0.88->0.89; PT Dec 0.17->0.18 / EOY 0.34->0.36.","kind":"signal","countries":["IT","PT","DE","LV"]},{"date":"2026-10-28","title":"Quiet scrape: map still 10/27; Dec agenda unpublished; odds held","body":"No new national recognition and no TCMV agenda since 27 Oct. fsd-eu-tracker.de still 10/27 ~ 14.3% (latest item Latvia 26 Oct). RDW news: no FSD item after 17 Jun 2026. X from:teslaeurope since 26 Oct: only the Latvia post. from:elonmusk: no new EU/FSD post after the 26 Oct LV amplify + smaller-countries bravo (already logged). from:Tesla: none. Tesla Mag consult widget dated 28 Oct but body still 'as of 27 Oct' and no cleared ministry answers published. EVmag (27 Oct) restates the IMT no-parecer FOI already logged. Comitology register still shows only the 6 Oct draft (Art.39 discussion, no vote); December agenda unpublished. Tier4: Now You Know (27 Oct Tesla Time News 694) restates Latvia; IntelligentTesla / Numerama / Dirty Tesla / AI DRIVR / BestInTESLA / Tesla / Tesla Jigsaw / Sawyer Merritt / robot*irl / Steven Peeters — no new regulator-grade claim. Odds held (Dec EU 0.47 / EOY 0.53; PT Dec 0.17 / EOY 0.34).","kind":"quiet","countries":["PT","LV","DE","FR"]},{"date":"2026-10-27","title":"Quiet scrape: map still 10/27; Musk LV amplify + PT IMT no-parecer FOI; odds held","body":"No new national recognition and no TCMV agenda. Catch-up: @elonmusk 26 Oct 17:33Z amplified Latvia (missed by the 13:10Z scrape) and 17:38Z praised smaller countries moving fastest. Soft PT: 4gnews (26 Oct) — IMT Legal (21 Oct) wrote that no technical assessment/parecer on RDW recognition exists, contradicting the 25 Sep government refusal rationale (still not approval). fsd-eu-tracker.de now 10/27 ~ 14.3%. RDW news: no FSD after 17 Jun. Tesla Mag 27 Oct consult (FR MoT agreed to answer; answers unpublished) — not a regulator decision. Tier4: robot*irl 26 Oct Bratislava worst-streets ride (already-live SK); channelHints otherwise restating LV. Dec TCMV agenda unpublished. Odds held (Dec EU 0.47 / EOY 0.53; PT Dec 0.17 / EOY 0.34).","kind":"quiet","countries":["LV","PT","DE","FR"]},{"date":"2026-10-26","title":"Material: Latvia 10th EU market (CSDD + Tesla Europe); Baltics complete; odds nudged","body":"Latvia CSDD recognised RDW provisional Art.39 approval for Tesla Assisted Driving (26 Oct); @teslaeurope: Now approved in Latvia — rollout begins soon. BB.LV corroborates (speed-offset/monitoring changes noted). Map 9/27→10/27 (~13.9%→14.3%). All three Baltics live. No Elon amplify same day. Dec TCMV agenda still unpublished; FR UTAC out; PT/IMT quiet. Tier4: no new regulator-grade YouTube beyond prior SK/Prague clips. Odds: Dec EU 0.46→0.47 / EOY 0.52→0.53 / mid-2027 0.80→0.81; PT held (0.17/0.34). Coverage now=10.","kind":"approval","countries":["LV","PT","DE","FR"]},{"date":"2026-10-25","title":"Quiet scrape: map still 9/27; Dec agenda unpublished; odds held","body":"No material change since 24 Oct. fsd-eu-tracker.de still 9/27 ~ 13.9% (time machine 22 Oct; latest item still 21 Oct Q3/Musk). RDW news: no FSD item after June 2026 (latest FSD explanation 17 Jun; 22 Oct item is BRP deregistration). X from:teslaeurope since 2026-10-20: only 23 Oct Wilco customer safety story (already noted, not a market). from:elonmusk FSD/EU since 2026-10-22: none. Electrek/Reuters/NOTA: no 10th recognition; Dec TCMV agenda unpublished (register still the 6 Oct draft; mid-Nov is the realistic publish window). IMT/DRE/Tesla PT: Portugal still absent (Long Range archive 24 Oct is AI-maps recap, not IMT). Tier4 channelHints: Tesla Jigsaw 21 Oct EU roundup + BestInTESLA Q3/Roadster + robot*irl Prague already logged; IntelligentTesla / Now You Know / Numerama / Dirty Tesla / AI DRIVR / Tesla / Sawyer Merritt / Steven Peeters — no new regulator-grade claims (Steven Peeters 24 Oct is a reply gif on a DK intersection fail, not an approval). Odds held (Dec EU 0.46 / EOY 0.52; PT Dec 0.17 / EOY 0.34).","kind":"quiet","countries":["PT","SK","DE","FR"]},{"date":"2026-10-24","title":"Quiet scrape: map still 9/27; Dec agenda unpublished; odds held","body":"No material change since 23 Oct. fsd-eu-tracker.de still 9/27 ~ 13.9% (latest item still 21 Oct Q3/Musk). RDW news: no FSD item after June 2026 (22 Oct item is BRP deregistration, not FSD). X from:teslaeurope since 2026-10-16: SK approval (16 Oct) plus 23 Oct Wilco customer safety story — not a new market. from:elonmusk FSD/EU since 2026-10-21: attach-rate quote only (already logged). Electrek 22–23 Oct is FSD maps/v15 from the Q3 call, not a 10th recognition. Dec TCMV agenda unpublished. IMT/DRE/Tesla PT: Portugal still absent. Tier4 channelHints: Tesla Jigsaw 21 Oct EU roundup + BestInTESLA SK/Q3 + robot*irl SK first drive already logged; IntelligentTesla / Now You Know / Numerama / Dirty Tesla / AI DRIVR / Tesla / Sawyer Merritt / Steven Peeters — no new regulator-grade claims. Odds held (Dec EU 0.46 / EOY 0.52; PT Dec 0.17 / EOY 0.34).","kind":"quiet","countries":["PT","SK","DE","FR"]},{"date":"2026-10-23","title":"Quiet scrape: map still 9/27; Dec agenda unpublished; odds held","body":"No material change since 22 Oct Q3/Musk update. fsd-eu-tracker.de still 9/27 ~ 13.9% (time machine 22 Oct; latest item still 21 Oct Q3). RDW news: no FSD item after June 2026. X from:teslaeurope since 2026-10-17 (only 16 Oct SK); from:elonmusk FSD/EU since 2026-10-21 (attach-rate quote only, already logged). Kinstellar 23 Oct is a September CZ legal recap, not a new recognition. Electrek/Reuters/NOTA: no 10th market. Dec TCMV agenda unpublished. IMT/DRE/Tesla PT: Portugal still absent. Tier4 channelHints: Tesla Jigsaw 21 Oct EU roundup + BestInTESLA SK/Q3 already logged; robot*irl SK first drive already logged; IntelligentTesla / Now You Know / Numerama / Dirty Tesla / AI DRIVR / Tesla / Sawyer Merritt / Steven Peeters — no new regulator-grade claims. Odds held (Dec EU 0.46 / EOY 0.52; PT Dec 0.17 / EOY 0.34).","kind":"quiet","countries":["PT","SK","DE","FR"]},{"date":"2026-10-22","title":"Material: Tesla Q3 confirms 9 EU markets; Musk Q1-2027 EU-wide hope; odds up slightly","body":"Tesla Q3 shareholder update + @Tesla X (21 Oct): four post-Q2 approvals (HR/SI/CZ/SK); FSD Supervised live in nine EU countries; >100k customers; >160M km. Earnings call: Musk hopes for EU-wide within a few months and would be surprised if later than Q1 2027 — not Tesla-controlled. Map still 9/27 ~ 13.9% (fsd-eu-tracker). No 10th national recognition; Dec TCMV agenda unpublished; RDW news quiet on FSD; FR UTAC out; PT/IMT/DRE quiet. Tier4: Tesla Jigsaw EU roundup (21 Oct) + BestInTESLA Q3 (22 Oct) claim-grade; robot*irl SK/Prague already logged. Odds: Dec EU 0.44→0.46 / EOY 0.50→0.52 / mid-2027 0.78→0.80; PT Dec 0.16→0.17 / EOY 0.33→0.34.","kind":"forecast","countries":["SK","PT","DE","FR"]},{"date":"2026-10-22","title":"Q3 call: Musk hopes EU-wide by Q1 2027; map still 9/27; odds up slightly","body":"No 10th market. Tesla Q3 2026 update (21 Oct) confirms four approvals since Q2 (HR/SI/CZ/SK), 100k+ customers and 160M km in nine EU countries. Earnings call: Musk hopes for EU-wide approval within a few months and would be surprised if it takes longer than Q1 2027 — not a timeframe Tesla controls (Motley Fool transcript; fsd-eu-tracker.de same item). @teslaeurope silent since SK (16 Oct). @elonmusk X 21 Oct is US attach-rate, not the EU line. RDW news: no FSD item after June. Dec TCMV agenda unpublished. fsd-eu-tracker.de still 9/27 ~ 13.9%. Tier4: Tesla Jigsaw 21 Oct EU roundup with Not a FSD Tracker is claim-grade recap (SK, R171, TCMV) — no new regulator fact; IntelligentTesla/NowYouKnow/Numerama/DirtyTesla/AIDRIVR/BestInTESLA/Tesla/Sawyer/Steven Peeters quiet; robot*irl SK first drive already logged. Odds: Dec EU 0.44→0.46 / EOY 0.50→0.52 / mid-2027 0.78→0.80; PT Dec 0.16→0.17 / EOY 0.33→0.34.","kind":"forecast","countries":["PT","SK","DE","FR"]},{"date":"2026-10-21","title":"Soft scrape: SK customer OTA reported; LU stays on EU path; odds held","body":"No 10th market. Slovak press 20 Oct (Pravda, Startstop): customer enable underway at about €99/mo incl. VAT via the Tesla app; HW4 first, HW3 v14 Lite said to be in preparation — not a new @teslaeurope post (still \"soon\" since 16 Oct). Luxembourg minister Yuriko Backes (written answer 20 Oct, QP 4802): FSD Supervised is ADAS not automated driving; LU was not in the Dutch procedure; framework changes only via EU procedures — no national recognition. fsd-eu-tracker.de still 9/27 ~ 13.9%. RDW news: no FSD item after June. Dec TCMV agenda unpublished. Q3 earnings is after the US close today — no EU FSD remarks yet. Tier4: no new IntelligentTesla/NowYouKnow/Numerama/DirtyTesla/AIDRIVR/BestInTESLA/Tesla/Jigsaw/Sawyer/Steven Peeters regulator claims; robot*irl SK first drive already logged. Odds held (Dec EU 0.44 / EOY 0.50; PT Dec 0.16 / EOY 0.33).","kind":"signal","countries":["LU","PT","SK","DE","FR"]},{"date":"2026-10-20","title":"Quiet scrape: map still 9/27; no Dec agenda; odds held","body":"No new live markets. No primary Elon/Tesla Europe post since SK (16 Oct). fsd-eu-tracker.de still 9/27 ~ 13.9%. RDW news: no FSD item after June. Dec TCMV agenda unpublished. Soft: fan Change.org petition (PT, 17 Oct) for EU-wide same-capability approval - not a regulator signal. Tier4: robot*irl SK first drive already logged; IntelligentTesla/NowYouKnow/Numerama/DirtyTesla/AIDRIVR/BestInTESLA/Tesla/Jigsaw/Sawyer/Steven Peeters - no new regulator-grade claims since prior run. Odds held (Dec EU 0.44 / EOY 0.50; PT Dec 0.16 / EOY 0.33).","kind":"watch","countries":["PT","SK","DE","FR"]},{"date":"2026-10-20","title":"Quiet scrape: map still 9/27; no Dec agenda; odds held","body":"No new live markets. No primary Elon/Tesla Europe EU-country post since SK (16 Oct). @Tesla 19 Oct posts are US FSD marketing and the Dec 3 shareholder meeting — not EU regulatory. fsd-eu-tracker.de still 9/27 · ~13.9% (latest items still SK/NO 16 Oct). RDW news: no FSD item after June (16 Oct item is the Summer Conference, not FSD). Dec TCMV agenda unpublished. TAD Norge 20 Oct rehashes the June 30 minutes (already logged). Kinstellar 20 Oct is a September Czechia legal recap, not a new recognition. Hungary still waiting (e-cars.hu 17 Oct — already known). Tier4: no new IntelligentTesla/NowYouKnow/Numerama/DirtyTesla/AIDRIVR/BestInTESLA/Tesla/Jigsaw/Sawyer/Steven Peeters/robot*irl regulator claims since the SK first drive (17 Oct) and BestInTESLA SK rehash (18 Oct). Odds held (Dec EU 0.44 / EOY 0.50; PT Dec 0.16 / EOY 0.33).","kind":"watch","countries":["PT","SK","DE","FR"]},{"date":"2026-10-19","title":"Quiet scrape: map still 9/27; PT club still waiting on IMT; odds held","body":"No new live markets. No primary Elon/Tesla Europe post since SK (16 Oct). fsd-eu-tracker.de still 9/27 · ~13.9%. RDW news: no FSD item after June. Dec TCMV agenda unpublished. Soft (missed 18 Oct): Tesla Club Portugal via Long Range (17 Oct) — IMT meeting cancelled, club waiting to reschedule, government on EU path; not a recognition. June 30 TCMV minutes (published ~16–17 Oct; 4.4 km/h under detected limit; vote timing depends on NL answers) already noted prior run — rehash only. Tier4: robot*irl SK first drive already logged; BestInTESLA 18 Oct EU title is SK rehash; IntelligentTesla/NowYouKnow/Numerama/DirtyTesla/AIDRIVR/Tesla/Jigsaw/Sawyer/Steven Peeters — no new regulator claims. Odds held (Dec EU 0.44 / EOY 0.50; PT Dec 0.16 / EOY 0.33).","kind":"watch","countries":["PT","SK","DE","FR"]},{"date":"2026-10-18","title":"Quiet scrape: map still 9/27; BE De Ridder speed-offset soft; odds held","body":"No new live markets. Soft: Flemish minister De Ridder (15 Oct Parliament) — Belgium not suspending; Tesla+RDW improving EU dossier; speed-offset adjust/remove under discussion (raised with Tesla 8 Oct). robot*irl day-one SK roads (17 Oct, claim-grade). No primary Elon/Tesla Europe EU post since SK amplify. Dec TCMV agenda unpublished; FR UTAC out; PT waiting. Tier4: robot*irl SK clip only — IntelligentTesla/NowYouKnow/Numerama/DirtyTesla/AIDRIVR/BestInTESLA no new regulator claims. Odds held (Dec EU 0.44 / EOY 0.50; PT Dec 0.16 / EOY 0.33).","kind":"watch","countries":["BE","SK","PT","FR","DE"]},{"date":"2026-10-17","title":"Catch-up: Tesla Europe + Elon confirm SK; odds held","body":"@teslaeurope (16 Oct 14:04Z): \"Now approved in Slovakia — Rollout begins soon\"; @elonmusk amplify same day. Fills gap from 16 Oct scrape (ministry yes, Tesla silent at cut). Map still 9/27 · ~13.9%; no 10th market; Dec TCMV agenda unpublished; FR UTAC out; PT waiting. Norway (EEA) minister: follow EU path, no unilateral national recognition. Tier4: Denník N SK short rehash only — no new channelHints regulator claims. Odds held (Dec EU 0.44 / EOY 0.50; PT Dec 0.16 / EOY 0.33).","kind":"signal"},{"date":"2026-10-16","title":"Material: Slovakia 9th EU market; odds up slightly","body":"Ministry of Transport SR (mindop.sk 16 Oct) officially recognised Dutch RDW provisional type approval of Tesla FSD (Supervised) — ninth live market (NL/LT/EE/DK/BE/SI/CZ/HR/SK · ~13.9%). TASR / Denník N / Startitup / NotAnFSDTracker corroborate. No @teslaeurope/@elonmusk amplify yet; Tesla approved-list / rollout date TBD. FR UTAC still out; PT waiting. Tier4: BestInTESLA X note + FutureAzA/BestInTESLA EU roundup (5 Oct) claim-grade only — no new regulator video. Odds: Dec EU 0.42→0.44 / EOY 0.48→0.50; PT Dec 0.15→0.16 / EOY 0.32→0.33.","kind":"approval","countries":["SK","PT","DE","FR"]},{"date":"2026-10-15","title":"Quiet scrape: map still 8/27; SK letter still unconfirmed ~8d; odds held","body":"No new live markets. No primary Elon/Tesla Europe EU-country post. Soft: SK Ráž recognition letter still unconfirmed ~8d after \"coming days\" claim; secondary CZ rename (auto-mania 15 Oct) / PT rename (evmag.pt 14 Oct) already covered. FR UTAC still out. Tier4: BestInTESLA DE flip / Automotive News rename already logged — no new regulator-grade items. Odds held (Dec EU 0.42 / EOY 0.48; PT Dec 0.15 / EOY 0.32).","kind":"watch","countries":["SK","PT","DE","FR"]},{"date":"2026-10-14","title":"Quiet scrape: map still 8/27; SK letter still unconfirmed ~7d; odds held","body":"No new live markets. No primary Elon/Tesla Europe EU-country post. Soft: SK Ráž recognition letter still unconfirmed ~7d after \"coming days\" claim; secondary PT/EU rename rehash (Razão Automóvel / Automobile Magazine 14 Oct) already covered in catch-up. FR UTAC still out; Mondial deputy demo chatter claim-grade only. Tier4: no new regulator-grade items beyond prior Bilger/rename clips. Odds held (Dec EU 0.42 / EOY 0.48; PT Dec 0.15 / EOY 0.32).","kind":"watch","countries":["SK","PT","DE","FR"]},{"date":"2026-10-13","title":"Quiet scrape: map still 8/27; SK letter still unconfirmed; odds held","body":"No new live markets. No primary Elon/Tesla Europe EU-country post. Soft: SK Ráž recognition letter still unconfirmed ~6d after \"coming days\" claim; secondary rename coverage (electrive/dpa) already in prior catch-up. FR UTAC still out. Tier4: BestInTESLA DE flip (9 Oct) and Automotive News rename (12 Oct) — claim-grade, no new regulator fact. Odds held (Dec EU 0.42 / EOY 0.48; PT Dec 0.15 / EOY 0.32).","kind":"watch","countries":["SK","PT","DE","FR"]},{"date":"2026-10-12","title":"Material catch-up: DE Bilger backing + rename; TCMV Oct discussions held; SK imminent; odds up","body":"~10d gap after scheduler died (empty until re-registered 12 Oct). Map still 8/27 · ~12.7%. TCMV 6 Oct confirmed discussions-only (no vote). BMV/Bilger (6 Oct): ≤10% speed + Tesla Assisted Driving rename + push for prompt EU approval; Elon Danke Schön. Tesla EU sites renamed ~8–9 Oct. SK Ráž recognition letter \"coming days\" (unconfirmed). Reuters RDW-pressure piece. FR UTAC still out. Odds: Dec EU 0.32→0.42 / EOY 0.36→0.48; PT Dec 0.11→0.15 / EOY 0.26→0.32.","kind":"forecast","countries":["DE","FR","SK","PT","SE","NL"]},{"date":"2026-10-12","note":"Catch-up scrape after scheduler empty again (old dual-loop 01a0dd38-* expired). New daily 01a12f53-0ea0-7d82-b811-a5d611b4847d + keep-alive 01a12f53-2f6d-7c41-8247-80e921048228 re-registered 2026-10-12. Start-fresh rule enforced."},{"date":"2026-10-02","title":"Quiet catch-up scrape: map still 8/27; FR UTAC still out; TCMV ~4d; asOf bump","body":"Scheduled fire failed (resume-transcript-too-large); manual catch-up. No new live markets. No primary Tesla/Elon EU-country post. Soft: BMDV Bürgerdienst Dec decision envisaged (not locked); HR owner ride clips. FR formal UTAC results still unpublished. TCMV 6 Oct (~4d) discussions-only; Dec earliest. Odds held (Dec 0.32 / EOY 0.36).","kind":"watch","countries":["PT","FR","DE","HR"]},{"date":"2026-10-02","note":"Catch-up after scheduled fire failed (resume-transcript-too-large). Daily durable scrape 01a0dd38-4277-7eb0-b065-617f04f9755d — re-register (~7d auto-expiry; created 25 Sep). Keep-alive 01a0dd38-f45d-7860-957a-6d048b95d9d6 due ~2 Oct."},{"date":"2026-10-01","title":"Quiet scrape: map still 8/27; FR UTAC still out; TCMV ~5d; asOf bump","body":"No new live markets. No primary Tesla/Elon EU-country post. Soft DE recaps restate KBA speed-margin review. FR formal UTAC results still unpublished. TCMV 6 Oct (~5d) discussions-only; Dec earliest. Odds held (Dec 0.32 / EOY 0.36).","kind":"watch","countries":["PT","FR","DE"]},{"date":"2026-10-01","note":"Daily durable scrape (01a0dd38-4277-7eb0-b065-617f04f9755d). Within ~1-2d of ~7d auto-expiry (created 25 Sep) — re-register this run. Keep-alive next ~2 Oct."},{"date":"2026-09-30","title":"Quiet scrape: DZM Croatia soft corroboration; Tesla HQ 8-country amplify; asOf bump","body":"No new live markets (still 8/27 · ~12.7%). Soft: DZM Art.39 recognition via N1/HINA; @Tesla HQ amplifies 8-country tally; IE regulator talks claim-grade. FR UTAC still out. TCMV 6 Oct (~6d) discussions-only. Odds held (Dec 0.32 / EOY 0.36).","kind":"watch","countries":["HR","IE","PT","FR"]},{"date":"2026-09-30","note":"Daily durable scrape (01a0dd38-4277-7eb0-b065-617f04f9755d). Within ~2d of ~7d auto-expiry (created 25 Sep) — re-register this run. Keep-alive next ~2 Oct."},{"date":"2026-09-29","title":"Material: Croatia 8th market; ETSC speed-offset reject brief","body":"Tesla Europe + Reuters: Croatia Art.39 recognition → 8/27 · ~12.7%. Same day ETSC position paper urges reject of speed-offset (UN R171 breach claim) and traffic-based contextual max speed ahead of Oct 6 discussions-only TCMV. Dec still earliest EU-wide vote. PT waiting. Odds: Dec EU-wide 0.34→0.32; EOY 0.38→0.36; PT EOY 0.28→0.26.","kind":"approval","countries":["HR","PT"]},{"date":"2026-09-29","note":"Daily durable scrape (01a0dd38-4277-7eb0-b065-617f04f9755d). Material: HR approval + ETSC brief. Keep-alive due same day."},{"date":"2026-09-28","title":"Quiet scrape: map still 7/27; FR UTAC still out; asOf bump","body":"No new live markets. No primary Tesla/Elon EU-country post. FR formal UTAC results still unpublished. TCMV 6 Oct (~8d) discussions-only; Dec earliest. PT waiting. Odds held (Dec 0.34 / EOY 0.38).","kind":"watch","countries":["PT","FR"]},{"date":"2026-09-28","note":"Daily durable scrape (01a0dd38-4277-7eb0-b065-617f04f9755d). Map still 7/27 · 11.8%. Keep-alive next ~29 Sep."},{"date":"2026-09-27","title":"Quiet scrape: map still 7/27; FR UTAC still out; asOf bump","body":"No new live markets. No primary Tesla/Elon EU-country post since CZ/TCMV-slip items. FR formal UTAC results still unpublished. TCMV 6 Oct discussions-only; Dec earliest. PT waiting. Odds held (Dec 0.34 / EOY 0.38).","kind":"watch","countries":["PT","FR"]},{"date":"2026-09-27","note":"Daily durable scrape (01a0dd38-4277-7eb0-b065-617f04f9755d). Map still 7/27 · 11.8%. Keep-alive 01a0dd38-f45d-7860-957a-6d048b95d9d6 next ~29 Sep."},{"date":"2026-09-26","title":"Odds: drop October TCMV window — Dec is the near bucket","body":"Removed by_tcmv_window (Oct) from EU-wide and Portugal odds. EU will not operate faster than the published agenda (Oct = discussions only). Near window is by_dec_tcmv (EU 0.34 / PT 0.12); EOY held.","kind":"forecast","countries":[]},{"date":"2026-09-26","title":"Material: Czechia live (7th); TCMV Oct vote cancelled — Dec earliest; odds cut","body":"Czechia recognised RDW Art.39 (21 Sep) → 7/27 · ~11.8%. Draft TCMV 6 Oct agenda is discussions-only (25 min); Reuters/Electrek + Musk 'Sigh' — December earliest EU-wide vote. Soft: Johanna.be BE speeding study (24 Sep); Hirte/KBA speed talks (23 Sep); FR UTAC results still out. PT waiting. Odds: Oct EU 0.35→0.06; EOY 0.52→0.38; PT EOY 0.40→0.28. Tier4: robot*irl Prague first drive.","kind":"material","countries":["CZ","BE","DE","FR","PT"]},{"date":"2026-09-26","note":"Catch-up scrape after ~9d stall (asOf was 2026-09-17). Durable task re-registered 01a0dd38-4277-7eb0-b065-617f04f9755d + keep-alive 01a0dd38-f45d-7860-957a-6d048b95d9d6."},{"date":"2026-09-26","title":"Material catch-up: Czechia 7th market; Oct TCMV no vote → Dec earliest","body":"Czechia Art.39 recognition (21 Sep) → 7/27 · ~11.8%. Electrek/comitology: Oct 6 agenda is 25 min discussions only — December earliest EU-wide vote (Elon 'Sigh'). Soft: Johanna.be BE speeding study; DE Hirte speed clarification. FR UTAC results still out. PT waiting. Odds: Oct EU-wide 0.35→0.06; EOY 0.52→0.38; PT EOY 0.40→0.28.","kind":"approval","countries":["CZ","BE","DE","FR","PT"]},{"date":"2026-09-26","note":"Durable daily scrape (01a0dd38-4277-7eb0-b065-617f04f9755d). Catch-up after asOf 2026-09-17 (~9d gap). Material: CZ approval + TCMV slip."},{"date":"2026-09-17","title":"Quiet scrape: ES 460k km testing soft; SI minister ride; FR results still out; asOf bump","body":"No new live markets (still 6/27 · 9.4%). Soft: @teslaeurope 16 Sep Spain 2yr/460k km Supervised testing video — not customer approval. Soft: SI minister positive ride (14 Sep). France mid/late-Sep UTAC results still unpublished. TCMV ~19 days; PT waiting. Oct odds nudged 0.36→0.35.","kind":"watch","countries":["ES","SI","FR","PT"]},{"date":"2026-09-17","note":"Daily durable scrape (01a090a1-6c7a-7303-816e-6a73ecad1fef). Map still 6/27 · 9.4%. Re-register before ~7-day scheduler expiry (created 11 Sep)."},{"date":"2026-09-12","title":"Quiet scrape: KBA dual-path FOI; FR results still pending; asOf bump","body":"No new live markets (still 6/27 · 9.4%). Soft DE: KBA FOI confirms TCMV + national Art.39(5) both under review — not approval. France UTAC results still unpublished. TCMV ~24 days; PT waiting. Odds held.","kind":"watch","countries":["DE","FR","PT"]},{"date":"2026-09-12","note":"Daily durable scrape (01a090a1-6c7a-7303-816e-6a73ecad1fef). Map still 6/27 · 9.4%. Re-register before ~7-day scheduler expiry (~18 Sep)."},{"date":"2026-09-11","title":"Quiet scrape: SE testing video; SI rollout clips; asOf bump","body":"No new live markets. @teslaeurope: ~1yr Sweden Supervised testing + Slovenia customer footage. France still testing; TCMV ~25 days; PT waiting. Odds buckets held.","kind":"watch","countries":["SE","SI","PT"]},{"date":"2026-09-11","note":"Immediate fire of daily scrape task (manual). Map still 6/27 · 9.4%; durable scheduler 01a090a1-6c7a-7303-816e-6a73ecad1fef remains for next 1d fires."},{"date":"2026-09-09","title":"Material: Slovenia live; France road-testing; Art.39 dashboard; Tier4 YouTube","body":"Sixth EU market (SI, 7 Sep). France moved opposed→reviewing with Tesla-supplied on-road FSD tests after Tabarot–Musk call; AFP: no major blockers so far. Tesla Europe published Article 39 safety dashboard (1 Sep). Odds recalibrated up for Oct/EOY. Tier4 channelHints locked (IntelligentTesla + top-10). YouTube: Steven Peeters SI, robot*irl DK, Tesla Jigsaw TCMV.","kind":"material","countries":["SI","FR","PT"]},{"date":"2026-09-09","note":"Daily scrape (catch-up from mid-Aug): 6 live markets (NL/LT/EE/DK/BE/SI · ~9.4% pop); FR testing; TCMV 6 Oct; PT waiting; Tier4 YouTube channelHints expanded."},{"date":"2026-08-16","title":"Quiet-day odds: explicit P(by date) for EU-wide and Portugal","body":"No new live markets or TCMV agenda change. Added structured odds buckets (Oct window / EOY 2026 / mid-2027 / EOY 2027) plus expected live-country coverage ranges so quiet scrapes still improve the forecast.","kind":"watch","countries":["PT"]},{"date":"2026-08-16","note":"Daily scrape: no material change. Still five live EU markets (NL/LT/EE/DK/BE · 8.9% pop); TCMV next realistic vote 6 Oct 2026; Portugal waiting; no new national recognition or primary Elon/Tesla EU availability post."},{"date":"2026-08-15","note":"Daily scrape: no material change. Still five live EU markets (NL/LT/EE/DK/BE · 8.9% pop); TCMV next realistic vote 6 Oct 2026; Portugal waiting; no new national recognition or primary Elon/Tesla EU availability post."},{"date":"2026-08-14","note":"Daily scrape: no material change. Still five live EU markets (NL/LT/EE/DK/BE · 8.9% pop); TCMV next realistic vote 6 Oct 2026; Portugal waiting; no new national recognition or primary Elon/Tesla EU availability post."},{"date":"2026-08-13","note":"Daily scrape: no material change. Still five live EU markets (NL/LT/EE/DK/BE · 8.9% pop); TCMV next realistic vote 6 Oct 2026; Portugal waiting. @teslaeurope announced FSD Supervised ride-along in Switzerland (non-EU, demo — not customer approval)."},{"date":"2026-08-12","note":"Daily scrape: no material change. Still five live EU markets (NL/LT/EE/DK/BE · 8.9% pop); TCMV next realistic vote 6 Oct 2026; Portugal waiting / not on Tesla approved list; no new IMT/RDW/national recognition or Elon/Tesla primary EU availability post."},{"date":"2026-08-11","note":"Daily scrape: no material change. Still five live EU markets (NL/LT/EE/DK/BE); TCMV next realistic vote 6 Oct 2026; Portugal not on Tesla approved list; no new IMT/RDW/national recognition. @teslaeurope solicited EU FSD user stories (non-regulatory)."},{"date":"2026-08-10","note":"Schema v2: watchTargets, socialEvidence, per-country news[≤3]. Single blob isit-catalog/fsd-eu.json for IntelligenceISIT; daily Grok task overwrites blob; page loads /api/fsd-eu on refresh."}],"_meta":{"loaded_from":"blob:isit-catalog/fsd-eu.json","blob_etag":"\"0x8DF40C3AE73E8F8\"","blob_last_modified":"2026-11-12T13:48:49.000Z","served_at":"2026-11-12T19:00:02.291Z","cache":{"hit":false,"age_ms":0,"ttl_ms":300000}}}